Tag: World economy
January
The fear of overregulation frightening the regulators themselves
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision announced yesterday it had agreed to considerably loosen its new liquidity requirements. The relaxation of the rules illustrates the regulators are not particularly willing to risk another big hit to the economy due to heavy regulation.
December
Collateral rules make safest assets even richer
New rules concerning the collateral needed to back derivative positions as well as new liquidity requirements will have major consequences for financial markets in general. Even though the rules are not final yet, it seems increasingly clear that we will see increased demand for the highest-quality assets going forward.
November
Agreement on Greece not exactly boosting credibility
Despite remaining uncertainties, it looks likely that Greece will receive its money. Equally likely, going forward Euro-zone countries will have to take further losses on their exposure to Greece, while the outlook for the country remains clouded to say the least. The cost of the numerous meetings on Greece has been a further erosion of credibility.
Euro-zone outlook not as gloomy as recent headlines suggest
Recent headlines regarding the development of Euro-zone confidence numbers have been too gloomy. Today’s confidence data offers more hope that at least slightly better times will be ahead for the Euro-zone. Even though there is no denying the fact that confidence remains low, every recovery has to start somewhere.
October
Global Week Ahead – Positive bias to key figure surprises
The most important events this week will be the FOMC meeting and the Troika review of Greece. We expect the Riksbank to stay on hold.
NEMO: From crisis to crisis
Nordea Economic and Market Outlook: Our latest take on Nordic and Global financial markets and economies.
September
Week ahead: huge event risk creating volatility
QE3 from Fed and Wild Wednesday in the Euro area next week
August
Chief Economist’s Corner: Sure don’t look none too prosperous
As a child I watched John Steinbeck’s social realist masterpiece “The Grapes of Wrath” and maybe this is why images of a desperate Henry Fonda flash before my inner eye when I think about the severe drought that has hit the US, sending prices of corn and other crops sky high.
Cheføkonomens hjørne: Sure don’t look none too prosperous
Som barn så jeg John Steinbecks socialrealistiske mesterværk ” Vredens Druer” i fjernsynet. Det var i den film, at Henry Fonda for alvor slog i gennem i rollen som landarbejderen Tom Joad, der som følge af den ekstreme tørke, der ramte USA under den store depression i 1930’erne, bliver tvunget til at rive tilværelsen i Midtvesten op ved rode og sammen med sin familie søge lykken vestpå i Californien.
July
New Financial Forecasts
We have updated our financial forecasts. We keep our forecasts unchanged calling for a further gradual weakening of the common currency and bond yields to move basically sideways.
Difficult to sell your bonds? Why not force the wealthy to buy them
A German think-tank suggests forcing the wealthiest to buy government bonds, calculating it could lower German debt up to 9%. The idea is worth a closer look for Southern European countries but it doesn't solve long-term issues of where to find growth and balancing government budgets.
June
Week ahead: more weak data but do not worry – central banks are rushing to help
After all eyes being in Euro-zone events lately, next week’s heavy US data certainly has potential to catch the attention again.
EM FX Monocle – Into the summer lull
"Life after the storm" was a good title for our May EM FX Monocle – indeed, EM FX volatilities have declined and the currencies started to recover in June.
FX Comment: no quick fixes, but a bit of optimism
Yet another EU summit this week will not change trends. Moderate optimism on FX front - EM and commodity currencies to recover in the coming weeks.
G20 leaders very committed again – at least on paper
The statement from the G20 leaders contained a lot of good intentions again, but whether they will lead to any concrete implementation remains to be seen.
Oil price forecast: Perfect storm to fade soon
We expect the near 'perfect storm' for oil prices to fade soon and prices to regain momentum in Q3 and onwards on a combination of tightening oil fundamentals and renewed tensions between Iran and the West.
May
Global economy still expanding despite crisis
An increasingly clear picture is emerging of a US economy that has gained momentum and is slowly heading for a selfsustaining upswing, while Europe seems to be sliding into a deeper crisis than previously anticipated.
Long German yields to become Japanese?
German yield levels already look very depressed relative to growth and inflation expectations. Still, at the moment the abundance of shorter-term worries prevails, and these worries are likely to push German yields even lower
Week ahead: Central bank intervention looming?
All eyes remain on anecdotal news on how depositors in Greece and outside the country are reacting to the recent events. In terms of economic data releases, the main focus will be on flash PMIs for May.
April
The Fed to offer little ammo to bond bulls
Next week’s calendar looks quite interesting, with the main focus in the US on the 2-day Fed meeting concluding on Wednesday.
New French President may be less focused on budget discipline
Presidential elections due on 22 April and 6 May. Conservative Sarkozy and Socialist Hollande are neck to neck for the first round, while Hollande looks like a winner for the run-off.
The firewall never going to be big enough to work on its own
The G20 finance ministers will likely agree on increasing the resources of the IMF later this week. Such a decision, though not insignificant, is unlikely to change the course for markets.
Minor changes to financial forecasts
We see rates continuing lower in the coming months and the EUR/USD unchanged around the current levels.
Minor changes to financial forecasts
We see rates continuing lower in the coming months and the EUR/USD unchanged around the current levels.
A lot on the calendar next week, but positive surprises still scarce
We do not expect next week’s economic data offerings to convey a particularly encouraging message. Here is what we expect from the week ahead.
Liquidity boosting the safest assets again
The huge liquidity sloshing around is boosting the safest asset classes again, while Spanish and Italian bonds remain under pressure. This is likely to continue, until we see some better economic data again.
March
Global Economy: Times are changing – for a while
The batch of good economic news seems to have run its course, suggesting financial markets might be at a new turning point.
Saudi Arabia’s efforts to calm the oil market unlikely to succeed alone
We doubt that Saudi Arabia’s latest efforts to calm the oil market will alone be enough to cool sentiment or bring oil prices down to the Kingdom’s desired USD 100/barrel level, as OPEC’s effective spare capacity will quickly fall below the comfortable threshold of 3% of global supply.
February
Markets too complacent
Considering the macro risks hanging over the global economy, we argue that markets may be too complacent. We see four downside risks that could materialise this year, undermining global growth and eventually negatively affecting investor confidence and market valuations of risky assets.
January
US labour market – As good as it gets
Today's fresh data from the US labour market in December certainly shows an economy that has picked up steam in the second half of 2011.
Euro area turnaround on the way?
Making a case for why an improvement could be lurking beneath the fog of doom and gloom.
December
Outlook 2012 – kill or cure
Another year is over – a new year is beginning, and kill or cure will be the theme for 2012.
November
Italy – where Europe meets its Waterloo?
Nordea's Chief Analyst on the euro area presents his view on the latest developments in the European debt crisis.
Slowdown not “made in China”
No hard landing in China. If the situation abroad worsens, the authorities still have enough room to manoeuvre.
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