DCSIMG

Tag: Turkey

May

The fight against TRY strengthening continues

Published date: 17 May 2013 | Analyst: Annika Lindblad

The credit rating upgrade by Moody's to investment grade is of course good news and a significant step for Turkey. However, a credit rating upgrade raises expectations of further capital inflows. This puts further strengthening pressure on the TRY and more pressure on the CBRT to control it, until the economic outlook brightens.

April

Turkish central bank: Avoiding a stronger lira

Published date: 16 Apr 2013 | Analyst: Annika Lindblad

The Turkish central bank surprised with a 50bp interest rate cut (consensus -25bp). The interest rate action today is a clear sign that the central bank continues to prefer a weaker/stable TRY at the moment, and is more worried about modest growth than accelerating inflation.

Turkish GDP falls short of expectations

Published date: 2 Apr 2013 | Analyst: Annika Lindblad

Domestic demand was the main drag on growth last year. Q4 is, however, luckily already history, and looking forward the Turkish economy seems in a better position. S&P raised the country's credit rating last week, but kept it below investment grade. A widening CA deficit is the largest risk for further ratings upgrades.

March

Turkey – flexible monetary policy continues

Published date: 26 Mar 2013 | Analyst: Annika Lindblad

CBRT kept the benchmark one-week repo rate and the overnight borrowing rate unchanged. However, they decided to cut the O/N lending rate to 7.50% (from 8.50%). This is a fine-tuning move to monetary policy, and we rather see scope for tighter policy going forward.

February

Turkey takes steps to restrict credit growth and limit TRY gains

Published date: 19 Feb 2013 | Analyst: Annika Lindblad

The central bank action is aimed at limiting speculative capital inflows and restricting credit growth. The reserve requirement hikes will drain liquidity from the markets, while the rate cuts should dampen capital inflows and thus help limit TRY gains.

June

Turkey: still comfortably flexible

Published date: 21 Jun 2012 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

Turkey keeps the interest rates of its "unconventional" monetary policy unchanged, enjoying the flexibility... for now. Lower rates ahead when risks to TRY weakening are reduced. TRY is to remain a stable outperformer backed by CBT.

May

Emerging Markets FX Monocle – Life after the storm

Published date: 23 May 2012 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

The storm did come after the calm, as our April issue of the Monocle suggested. It may get worse before it gets better in the coming weeks, but not for long.

Turkey Flash: S&P changes outlook but we don’t.

Published date: 1 May 2012 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

S&P changes its outlook from "positive" to "stable" but we are still positive on TRY.

Turkey Flash: S&P changes outlook but we don’t.

Published date: 1 May 2012 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

S&P changes its outlook from "positive" to "stable" but we are still positive on TRY.

March

Emerging Markets FX Monocle – a lot of news, little action

Published date: 22 Mar 2012 | Analyst: Anders Svendsen

Risk is mispriced, again. And hence caution is still essential. But unless some of the key risks actually materialise, we are most likely to see Emerging currencies drift stronger over the coming months.

January

Emerging Markets Outlook 2012

Published date: 13 Jan 2012 | Analyst: Anders Svendsen

Many interesting and globally important stories in easily digestable format.

October

Emerging Markets – from FX risks to liquidity risks

Published date: 25 Oct 2011 | Analyst: Anders Svendsen

The key message in our new Emerging Markets FX Outlook is that FX risks are lower, but liquidity risks are higher. We currently see interesting opportunities in CNY, risk of emergency hikes in Hungary and a strong PLN by year-end.