Tag: Riksbank
May
Central Bank Watch: New Governors at the Riksbank
Today Cecilia Skingsley (b. 1968) and Martin Flodén (b. 1970) were appointed as new governors at the Riksbank. Premature to do the bird-classification. We regard both candidates as skilled with judicious minds and integrity. Both will be voting already in …
Nitty Gritty on Sweden: The upward trend in the labour supply remains intact
Attached are some charts on the April Labour Force Survey. A key question is how to look at the very strong upturn in the labour supply. The employment rate is stable, but absence has remained high in recent months.
Sweden: Unemployment stays above the Riksbank’s forecast
It is a close call whether the Riksbank will cut rates or not in July. That is the bottom line of today’s figures from the Labour Force Survey.
Sweden Update: Inför KPI i april – botten nådd?
Vi räknar med att KPI steg med 0,1 procent i april. Riskerna ligger på nedsidan. Botten kan vara nådd för tolvmånaderstalen för den här gången. Läs rapporten: KPI april 2013
Sweden Update: Fewer Swedes go to work
In our Update “Fewer Swedes go to work” we provide an overview of the latest labour market data. We argue that high unemployment is not the only thing to worry about in the labour market. The pressure on the Riksbank to cut rates is intense.
Norway with inflation target no one wants to pursue
Monetary policy target slipping Lars Svensson would have resigned also if he had been at Norges Bank Norges Bank emphasis financial stability more than the Riksbank Norwegian 2 ½ % inflation target is incompatible with other economic goals Norges Bank …
April
Riksbank minutes: Households’ debt the focal point
Riksbank minutes from the 16 April monetary policy meeting didn’t come with any major surprises. We stick to our view that the Riksbank will not trim the repo rate from the current level of 1.0%.
Swedish week ahead no 18
* Riksbank’s minutes, retail sales and PMI * NSI: Surprisingly high unemployment
2 ½ %, målet ingen egentlig ønsker blir forfulgt
Inflasjonsmålet er på glid i Norge og Sverige, men mest i Norge Det norske inflasjonsmålet er i disharmoni med andre økonomisk mål Norges Bank og Sveriges Riksbank har nylig foretatt kraftige nedjusteringer av sine inflasjonsprognoser. Årsaken var ikke den samme, …
Nitty Gritty Sweden: Credit growth gears up but resource utilisation drops
The Riksbank’s RU-indicator falls back, almost at post-Lehman levels.
Swedish Labour Force Survey: Sharp rise in labour supply
The March Labour Forces Survey was weaker than expected as unemployment came out at 8.4% (seasonally adjusted). Our and the consensus call was 8.2%. Unemployment was also higher than the Riksbank’s forecast. For Q1, unemployment averaged 8.2%, 0.1% point above the Riksbank’s view.
Central Bank Watch Sweden: A dove leaving the Riksbank
• Deputy Governor Lars EO Svensson to leave Executive Board • July rate cut somewhat less likely
Central Bank Watch Sweden: Riksbank softening
Unchanged repo rate of 1.0%, but rate path lowered sharply Focus back to inflation Downside risks to our forecast of a repo rate of 1.00% at end-2013 and 1.50% at end-2014
Soft Riksbank stays on hold
The Riksbank today sent a soft tone to markets, despite leaving the rate unchanged at 1.00% as widely expected. The reason is that the repo rate path was revised down quite substantially for 2014.
Swedish week ahead no 16
Spring Budget with few sharp measures The Riksbank to stay on hold
Central Bank Watch Sweden: The Riksbank on hold
We expect the repo rate to be left unchanged next week as well as the rest of the year. Risks to our repo rate forecast are clearly on the downside
Central Bank Watch Sweden: Riksbanken ligger lågt
Många faktorer talar för en räntesänkning. Vi bedömer ändå att Riksbanken lämnar reporäntan oförändrad såväl vid nästa veckas penningpolitiska möte som senare i år.
Sweden Update – Ahead of March CPI: Clothing prices the wild card
We expect the CPI to be up 0.3% m/m in March. It seems increasingly certain that inflation will remain low and that the Riksbank will have to revise down its inflation forecast for coming years.
Sweden Update – Inför KPI i mars: Klädpriser joker igen
Vi räknar med att KPI steg med 0,3 procent i mars. Allt mer tyder på att den låga inflationen består och att Riksbanken kommer att justera ned inflationsprognosen för de kommande åren.
March
EURSEK forecast revision
• Swedish economy a strong performer • More SEK appreciation to be expected
Prognosrevidering i EURSEK
• Svensk ekonomi utvecklas bättre än den I euroområdet • Riksbanken höjer tidigare och mer än ECB • Kronan apprecieras som en konsekvens
CBW Sweden: Pilar to post
• Further repo rate cut by the Riksbank not expected • Repo rate to be hiked to 1.50% in 2014 • EUR/SEK at 8.10 in a year
Swedish production drops
Statistics Sweden’s indicator for production in the business sector came in weak. This was expected given the previously released figures for manufacturing and private service sector. Production in construction fell by 3.9% y/y. Total production in business sector fell by …
Navigator mars – 20 års högsta på kronan!
Tar man fram en längre tidsserie på kronan (EURSEK från 1980) och betraktar den så är vägen kantad med perioder av fullständiga kronkollapser. Om inte landet och valutan hade varit känd så hade man kunnat gissa att grafen föreställde ett …
Sweden: Long term inflation expectations below 2%
Inflation expectations for the 5y horizon fell to an 8 year low and below 2% in March, increasing pressures on the Riksbank to cut rates.
Swedish GDP Q4 – no reason for rate cut in April
Today’s Q4 GDP release was very much in line with the Riksbank’s forecast. This, together with glimpses of light here and there, such as improved PMIs, makes a rate cut in April very unlikely.
February
Exports and inventories dragged down Q4 GDP
According to our forecast Q4 GDP was down by 0.8% q/q. Compared to Q4 2011 GDP expanded by just 1.0%. This is below the Riksbank forecast and supports the view of a rate cut in April.
Sweden Update, Ahead of the CPI: January chill
CPI inflation fell by 0.8% m/m in January according to our forecast. There are considerable uncertainties. Risks are skewed towards a higher reading. Our forecast is below the Riksbank’s view.
Sweden Update, Inför KPI: Januarifrossa
KPI föll med 0,8 procent på månadsbasis i januari enligt vår prognos. Osäkerheten är stor. Risken för ett högre utfall överväger. Vår prognos är lägre än Riksbankens.
Sweden: Revisions of the LFS – dovish
Yesterday Statistics Sweden announced that the Labour Force Survey is revised for the years 2010-2012. The revisions of the LFS all point in the same direction, namely to lower resource utilisation and to lower cost pressures.
Central Bank Watch: Alla ögon på arbetsmarknaden
Riksbanken meddelade idag att reporäntan lämnas oförändrad på 1,0 procent. Det var förhållan-devis osäkert inför räntebeslutet men vi hade räknat en räntesänkning till 0,75 procent. Vi bedömer dock att Riksbanken sänker räntan igen och då sannolikt i april.
Riksbank’s interviews: Companies stay downbeat and signal low inflation
The Riksbank has conducted interviews with companies in the construction, retail, manufacturing and service sectors ahead of every Monetary Policy Report since 2007, thus three times a year. The interviews were conducted for 25 companies with total number of employed of around 210,000 during the period 7 January – 18 January.
Central Bank Watch Sweden: En sista sänkning
Vi räknar med att Riksbanken sänker reporäntan med 25 punkter till 0,75 procent vid nästa veckas penningpolitiska möte. Den nya räntebanan signalerar sannolikt en oförändrad ränta på 0,75 procent under återstoden av året, vilket också är vår prognos.
January
Derivatbladet, ränta upp = enkel biljett eller t/r
Årets första veckor har bjudit på en fortsättning av räntebaisse och börsbull. Svenska långräntor har stigit med 30 punkter och OMX noterar +5 % YTD. Framåtblickande makroindikatorer gör gällande att tillväxten för både den globala ekonomin och västvärlden skall se …
Swedish Week Ahead
The most important figure ahead of the Riksbank’s rate decision 13 February is due next week, namely unemployment according to the Labour Force Survey (Thursday).
Navigator januari – ser vi ljuset i tunneln efter fem år av städande?
Ett vanligt fel bland ekonomer är att blanda ihop struktur och det cykliska. Även om de strukturella problemen (västvärldens skuld) är stora kan vi få se en global cyklisk ljusning under 2013. Vi har en prognos på EURSEK på 8,60 …
Sweden: Inflation above expectations for once
CPI-inflation was 0.1% point above the Riksbank’s forecast in December. However, today’s figures do not change much.
Riksbank minutes: A 50 bp rate cut was considered
Riksbank minutes from the 17 December monetary policy meeting strengthens our view that the Riksbank will cut rates again in February by 25 bp.
Swedish Week Ahead
Next week’s data will provide some insight on how the year ended in both real and nominal terms. We’ll also receive the minutes from the Riksbank’s policy meeting in December.
December
Swedish X-mas Indicators
Here is a chart-pack about the Swedish economy to flip through before the holidays. Nordea sees short-term weakness, a deteriorating labour market and low inflation for longer. Swedish indicators Dec 2012
Derivatbladet – Centralbankernas paradmarsch
Ett räkneexempel gör gällande att om vi tar värdet av BoE, Fed, BoJ och ECB:s balansräkningar så skulle vi kunna köpa en 42’’ LED Smart TV från SONY (inkl. uppbärning och installation) till varje invånare på jorden. Det skulle vara en …
Expect one more rate cut
As generally expected, the Riksbank announced a repo rate cut to 1.0 percent. We maintain our forecast that the Riksbank will deliver another rate cut in February.
Sweden: The Riksbank signals some further easening
Today’s signal from the lowered rate path supports our forecast of yet another rate cut by 25 bps in February.
Swedish Week Ahead no. 51
Next week’s focus is the announcement of the Riksbank’s rate decision (Tuesday). We also watch the NIER’s business and consumer surveys, and also their new forecast (Wednesday)
Navigator december – kronan ingen ”safe haven” men väl en ”safer haven”
Snart påbörjar västvärlden sitt femte år av skuldkris. Vi ser framför oss ännu ett år av nollränta och kraftiga reflationsstimulanser (QE). Åtgärderna gör att västvärlden fortsätter att ha en cyklisk rörelse i ekonomin. Må så vara att aktiviteten i vissa …
November
G10 Weekly: Headache
In this week’s edition of G10 weekly we elaborate on the Greek deal struck this week and the gloomy Swedish macro backdrop, with our bearish view having been strenghtened by the fresh release of the NIER survey. We also look at possible effects of early LTRO repayments and how this could affect market pricing.
Swedish Q3 GDP: Domestic demand weakening
GDP rose by 0.5% q/q, somewhat above forecasts including the Riksbank.
Inför BNP tredje kvartalet: Utplaning
Vi räknar med att BNP steg svagt på kvartalsbasis och ökade med 0,7 procent i årstakt. Riskbilden är balanserad. Vår prognos är i linje med Riksbankens bedömning och vi räknar alltjämt med att reporäntan sänks i december.
Ahead of Swedish Q3 GDP: Levelling out
Vi räknar med att BNP steg svagt på kvartalsbasis och ökade med 0,7 procent i årstakt. Riskbilden är balanserad. Vår prognos är i linje med Riksbankens bedömning och vi räknar alltjämt med att reporäntan sänks i december.
Riksbank reiterates the resilience of Swedish banks
The Riksbank’s report on Financial Stability did not come with any major surprises. The bank reiterated that the major Swedish banks are currently financially strong and have good access to funding. However, there are some structural weaknesses in the banking …
Sweden: Broad based drop in confidence in November
As expected, the situation in the manufacturing industry deteriorated further in November according to NIER’s Business Tendency Survey. Confidence dropped to -18 from -16, in line with consensus but somewhat above our call. The index for order intake from export …
Historiskt låga räntenivåer
Historiskt låga räntor på bred front talar för att det kan vara läge att binda. Riksbanken väntas dock sänka i december och februari och möjligen kan räntorna därmed komma ner ytterligare något.
G10 Weekly: Strategic Scandi Outlook
In this issue we take an in-depth look at our strategic views on both Sweden and Norway.
EURSEK – 8.70 in 3 months
Lower repo rate gives weaker SEK Growth is deteriorating and the Riksbank lower its reporate to 0,75% Limited effects on the SEK from today´s level We alter our 3-month EURSEK forecast from 8,50 to 8,70
EURSEK 8,70 om 3 månader
Vi justerar vår prognos på EURSEK i samband med vår nya reporänteprognos. Svensk ekonomi bromsar in allt kraftigare och Riksbanken sänker reporäntan till 0,75 % Effekterna på kronan blir dock begränsade från dagens nivå Vi höjer vår riktkurs för EURSEK …
More rate cuts in the pipeline
We adjust our forecast for the Riksbank’s repo rate. The reasons are surprisingly low inflation and a hike in our unemployment forecast.
Fler räntesänkningar i pipeline
Vi justerar vår prognos på Riksbankens reporänta. Orsakerna är överraskande låg inflation och en uppskrivning av vår prognos på arbetslösheten.
Sweden: The labour market continues to show resilience
The Swedish labour market continues to show resilience. According to the October Labour Force Survey, employment stayed flat on the month while we had expected a decline by 0.2%.
Navigator november – marknaden, rörd men inte skakad
Med presidentvalet avklarat kan marknaden helhjärtat fokusera på hur USA skall hantera det som kallas för ”fiscal cliff”. Samtidigt lider världen av en svag efterfrågan tillsammans med västvärldens strukturella behov av att spara. Det globala kapacitetsutnyttjandet är lågt och konkurrensutsatta …
Swedish industry slumps
Instant view Industrial production fell by more than 4% on the month. This was much worse than consensus but actually fits well into the bleak indicators for the manufacturing industry. Order intakes did not fall further in September but are still …
Derivatbladet – Att spara är ingen dygd
Vår prognos på global BNP de närmaste två åren gör gällande att världen skall hantera en låg efterfrågan tillsammans med ett strukturellt behov av att spara. Så kanske har räntemarknaden rätt med nuvarande låga avkasting i svenska räntor? Det kan …
Riksbank minutes underline further monetary policy easing
On the back of the rate path in the Riksbank’s October report and the bleak growth outlook, we see a rate cut in December more or less as a done deal. The minutes from the 24 October monetary policy supports this view.
Global Week Ahead – Focus turns to elections in the US (and in China)
Elections in US and in China will dominate headlines. Central bank meetings at the ECB and the Bank of England. First independent Danish rate hike in almost four years, weak Swedish production numbers and low Norwegian core inflation.
October
Boräntorna kan sjunka ytterligare
Räntorna kan komma ner ytterligare något i höst. Riksbanken väntas sänka i december och den globala återhämtningen går trögt.
Sweden and the SEK – Relative macro and rates drives EUR/SEK
The market should price in the structural flaws of Europe and quite simply flee EUR-denominated assets. Europe simply does not have the winning concept that guarantees progress near term. But disregarding the political foundation that Europe is now building on, …
Sverige och kronan – makrobilden driver kronan
Marknaden borde prissätta Europas strukturbrister och rätt och slätt fly från eurodenominerade tillgångar. Europa saknar helt enkelt det vinnande koncept som i den närmaste framtiden garanterar framgång. Men oaktat den politiska grund som nu håller på att byggas så är …
G10 Weekly: Macro vs. market divergence to end?
We believe that the macro vs. market divergence will end sooner rather than later as monetary policy actions gradually are becoming more ineffectual. And when this happens, expect risk aversion to be all over the place.
Riksbank ready to cut rates
As expected, the Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged at 1.25%. The repo rate path was lowered, also in line with expectations.
Riksbanken öppnar dörren
Riksbanken lämnade som väntat styrräntan oförändad på 1,25 procent. Räntebanan sänktes, också det väntat. Vi är stärkta i vår uppfattning att Riksbanken sänker reporäntan i december.
Sweden: October business tendency survey weak
The NIER’s Business Tendency Survey came out somewhat weaker than we had expected. Growth prospects are weaker than the Riksbank’s forecastand the Survey supports our view of a rate cut in December.
Global Week Ahead – Positive bias to key figure surprises
The most important events this week will be the FOMC meeting and the Troika review of Greece. We expect the Riksbank to stay on hold.
Central Bank Watch: Riksbank under pressure from low inflation
We believe that the Riksbank will leave the repo rate unchanged at next week’s monetary policy meeting. However, the rate path will probably be lowered, paving the way for the rate cut that we anticipate will come in December.
Låg inflation pressar Riksbanken
Vår bedömning är att Riksbanken lämnar reporäntan oförändrad vid nästa veckas penningpolitiska möte. Däremot sänks troligen räntebanan, vilket öppnar upp för den räntesänkning som vi räknar med kommer i december.
G10 Weekly: US Earnings – what’s up…or is it down?
In this week’s edition of G10 weekly we reiterate, and follow up on, our bearish US corporate earnings call. In addition, we preview next week’s Riksbank rate announcement.
Sweden: Employment rose in September
Unemployment stayed flat at 7.8% in September from the previous month, as widely expected (seasonally adjusted).
G10 Weekly: Severe headwinds facing the Swedish economy
In this week’s edition of G10 weekly we elaborate on the severe headwinds facing the Swedish economy. We also address the process of global deleverage, which appears to be far from over.
Låg KPI-inflation kan falla ytterligare
Vi räknar med att KPI steg med 0,6 procent på månadsbasis i september. Tolvmåna-derstalet är därmed oförändrat sedan augusti på 0,7 procent.
Sverige och kronan – kronan ett bekymmer
Givet var vi befinner oss i konjunkturcykeln så är den starka kronan en belastning för svensk exportindustri och potentiellt även för Riksbankens inflationsmål.
NEMO: From crisis to crisis
Nordea Economic and Market Outlook: Our latest take on Nordic and Global financial markets and economies.
Riksbank’s interviews: Companies signals low inflation
The Riksbank’s company interviews are further evidence that the Swedish economy has lost momentum, increasing pressure on the Riksbank to cut rates.
Swedish manufacturing PMI further down
PMI for the manufacturing industry fell further in September. Today’s figure supports our view of a more expansionary monetary policy.
September
Sweden: Households’ credit growth levelling out
Household credit growth was 4.6% y/y in August, up from 4.4% in July. This was higher than we had expected and underlines that credit growth has started to level out.
Sweden: Weaker sentiment in most business sectors
The business tendency survey indicates sluggish GDP growth, which in turn will reduce the demand for labour. Low inflation and rising unemployment will put pressure on the Riksbank to cut rates further.
Korta boräntan kan sänkas ytterligare
Riksbanken sänkte överraskande räntan i september. Vi ser ytterligare en sänkning i slutet av året. Även den korta boräntan kan komma ner ytterligare.
Riksbank minutes neutral
We find the tone in the Riksbank’s minutes from the 5 September monetary policy meeting as neutral. If anything, the minutes strengthens our view that a rate cut is not likely in October.
Swedish GDP growth down to earth
As we had expected, the Q2 GDP was revised down markedly. The lower growth supports the view of further rate cuts from the Riksbank.
Swedish August CPI well below the Riksbank’s view
Inflation was 0.3% point below the Riksbank’s forecast in August. Coupled with rising unemployment, this supports our view of further rate cuts.
Navigator september – aldrig har räntor varit så låga, för så många, så länge
I vår prognos över svensk ekonomi så ser vi att tillväxttakten under det andra halvåret ska försvagas och tätt följa Europa. Vår prognos på EURSEK är en fortsatt stark krona som dock försvagas i framtiden men som förblir stark i en historisk jämförelse.
Navigator september – aldrig har räntor varit så låga, för så många, så länge
I vår prognos över svensk ekonomi så ser vi att tillväxttakten under det andra halvåret ska försvagas och tätt följa Europa. Vår prognos på EURSEK är en fortsatt stark krona som dock försvagas i framtiden men som förblir stark i en historisk jämförelse.
Riksbank succumbs to pressure
The Riksbank's rate cut of 25 bp should be seen in light of the heavy pressure on the bank lately. Today's rate cut replaces the one that we previously expected in October. However, we reiterate our forecast of a 25 bp cut in December, leaving the repo rate at 1.00% at the turn of the year.
Riksbanken föll för trycket
Riksbankens räntesänkning med 25 punkter ska ses i ljuset av det hårda tryck som har varit på Riksbanken den senaste tiden. Dagens sänkning ersätter den som vi tidigare såg i oktober. Vi står fast vid att Riksbanken sänker i december med 25 punkter och att reporäntan är 1,00 procent vid årsskiftet.
The Riksbank yet again delivered a surprise
The Riksbank decided to cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 1.25%. Main motivating factors to the rate cuts were are lower inflation pressure, via stronger SEK and higher productivity.
Swedish PMI plummets
August PMI dropped to 45.1, which was the lowest reading since May 2009. It was significantly lower than July (50.6) and consensus which stood at 50. Looking at the sub-indices, order intakes fell sharply to 41.1 which bodes ill for development in the months ahead. Also, planned production fell below the 50-mark.
August
Market comment ahead of Riksbank
Around 25 % probability of a cut is currently being priced and about 30 bps of cuts in total to year end. This seems pretty fair to us and therefore we see little value in betting on the rate decision in itself. Instead one may look at trades that have a good-risk reward in making money if the Riksbank cuts but have a limited loss if they do not.
With the foot on the accelerator
We believe that the Riksbank will leave the repo rate and rate path unchanged at next week's monetary policy meeting. The main reason is the surprisingly strong domestic economy.
Riksbanken med foten på gasen
Riksbanken lämnar såväl reporäntan som räntebanan oförändrad vid nästa veckas penningpolitiska möte enligt vår bedömning. Huvudorsaken är den överraskande starka inhemska ekonomin.
Sweden: Mixed picture for business confidence
The NIER’s business tendency survey shows that the situation in the manufacturing industry deteriorated in August while it improved in other business sectors.
Sverige och kronan – det vinnande konceptet
Dagens EURSEK nivå kan vara ett trendbrott i marknadens syn på kronan. Med en värld i obalans så belönas de få ansvarsfulla valutor som finns kvar. Sommarmånaderna präglas av en synnerligen illikvid kronmarknad och säljare av EURSEK har mött lite motstånd.
Swedish July unemployment below forecasts
Once again the Labour Force Survey surprised and came out better than forecast.
Riksbank’s af Jochnick to stay on hold in September
Deputy Governor, Kerstin af Jochnick will probably vote for unchanged rates at the September meeting. This is based on her previous statements rather on her speech today.
Sweden: Several inflation themes during the autumn
We expect CPI to fall by 0.3% in July. There are plenty of inflation themes ahead of the autumn – the SEK, food prices, mortgage rates and energy prices.
Navigator augusti – kronan vinner guldmedalj i valutaolympiaden
Just nu betraktas Sverige som en ö av tillväxt i ett hav av kaos. Urstark svensk tillväxt det första halvåret, tillsammans med fortsatt sunda svenska statsfinanser, resulterar i att kronan värderas högt av marknaden.
Navigator augusti – kronan vinner guldmedalj i valutaolympiaden
Just nu betraktas Sverige som en ö av tillväxt i ett hav av kaos. Urstark svensk tillväxt det första halvåret, tillsammans med fortsatt sunda svenska statsfinanser, resulterar i att kronan värderas högt av marknaden.
Sweden: June service production raises doubts on Q2 GDP
Production in the private service sector for June came out much weaker than we had expected. The figures highlight the risk of revisions of the very strong Q2 GDP reading.
Ny EURSEK-prognos: inhemska skäl bakom den starka kronan
Vår nya EURSEK-prognos innehåller en kronförsvagning från dagens kurs men där EURSEK alltjämt handlar på en historiskt låg nivå.
Swedish Services PMI recovers strongly
Following the subdued figures last month, services PMI recovered strongly in July. The index picked up to its highest level in more than a year.
SEK showing strength
A very strong GDP figure for the second quarter caused the SEK to appreciate sharply. Uncertainties about the near-term direction of EUR/SEK are high. Longer term, however, we still expect the krona to depreciate from current levels.
Kronförstärkning, men osäkerheten i EURSEK är stor
En urstark svensk BNP för andra kvartalet fick SEK att appreciera kraftigt. Osäkerheten är stor om EURSEK den närmaste tiden. Vi räknar dock med att kronan på längre sikt skall försvagas från nuvarande nivå.
July
Sweden: Surprisingly strong GDP growth in Q2
Swedish GDP grew in Q2 by a full 1.4% q/q, following the robust growth in Q1. This was far above both ours and the Riksbank’s view, strengthening the view that the Riksbank will stay on hold in September.
Swedish retail sales leveling out
Retail sales fell back somewhat more than expected in June. Overall, the previously quite strong trend now seem to have leveled out.
Swedish overall business confidence slips further
Activity in the Swedish economy is currently sluggish. The confidence indicator for the total business sector declined further and now is clearly below its historical average.
Summer and the SEK – EURSEK undervalued
EUR/SEK is trading at the lowest levels seen since autumn 2000. A strong krona is supported by large interest rate differentials between Sweden and the Euro zone and a pretty decent trend on the stock exchange. But from a fair value perspective, the krona is overvalued.
Sommaren och kronan – EURSEK undervärderad
Kronan är urstark - EURSEK handlar på de lägsta nivåerna sedan hösten 2000. En stark krona stöds av större räntedifferensar mellan Sverige och euroområdet samt en hyfsad utveckling på börsen. Ur ett ”fair value” perspektiv är dock kronan övervärderad.
Revidering i EURSEK-prognosen
En vecka fullmatad med centralbansbeslut fick EURSEK att falla ner till lägsta nivån sedan 2000. Även om vi fortfarande förväntar oss svagare krona framöver så ser vår EURSEK-prognos alltmer frånsprungen ut och vi reviderar ned riktkurserna för hela prognoshorisonten.
The Riksbank leaves repo rate unchanged
The Riksbank decided to leave the repo rate unchanged at 1.50%. As at the previous meeting, the Executive Board was divided in its decision. Dep. Governors Ekholm and Svensson voted for a repo rate cut to 1.00%.
June
Some thoughts on Swedish markets ahead of summer
After the central bank meetings next week,the Swedish markets enter the major holiday season. In this one-pager we sum up some of our thoughts and observations on the yield curve, covered bonds and the currency.
Satisfied Riksbank staying on hold
The Swedish economy had a surprisingly strong start to 2012, which should mean that the Riksbank will leave the repo rate unchanged at its July meeting.
Nöjd Riksbank avvaktar
Svensk ekonomi har varit överraskande stark inledningsvis 2012, vilket gör att Riksbanken lämnar reporäntan oförändrad i juli.
Derivatbladet nr 5 – högen av euros är högre än alperna
Den filosofiska frågan huruvida mer pengar ger ökad lycka kan nu besvaras med ett rungande nej.
Navigator juni – sommarstiltje, skulle inte tro det
Marknaden har sannolikt stängt finansieringsfönstret till Spanien och det kommer gälla all finansiering, existerande som ny. Var ska pengarna komma ifrån?
Navigator juni – sommarstiltje, skulle inte tro det
Marknaden har sannolikt stängt finansieringsfönstret till Spanien och det kommer gälla all finansiering, existerande som ny. Var ska pengarna komma ifrån?
CPIF bottoms out in May
According to our estimates, CPI fell by 0.1 per cent in May m/m. The decline was due to falling energy prices.
KPIF-inflationen bottnar i maj
Vi räknar med att KPI föll med 0,1 procent på månadsbasis i maj. Fallande energipriser förklarar nedgången.
Swedish week ahead
This week we forecast no dramatic changes in the CPI for May. On Friday we expect data to support a weakening of the Swedish labour market.
Resilient housing market
The Swedish housing market has soft landed. Going forward, however, we expect rising house prices and continued credit growth. We believe the Riksbank is wise to stay alert, but the current situation is not worrying and should not prevent further rate cuts.
Hushållen fixar boendet
Svensk bostadsmarknad har mjuklandat. Framöver räknar vi med stigande huspriser och en fortsatt kredittillväxt. Enligt vår bedömning gör Riksbanken rätt i att bevaka utvecklingen men läget idag är inte oroande och bör inte hindra fortsatta räntesänkningar.
Resilient Swedish Housing Market
The Swedish housing market has soft landed. Going forward, however, we expect rising house prices and continued credit growth. We believe the Riksbank is wise to stay alert, but the current situation is not worrying and should not prevent further …
May
Swedish April LFS: the labour market more resilient than expected
The situation on the labour market is better than the Riksbank’s forecast, suggesting that the Riksbank will stay on hold in July.
Thoughts on the Riksbank’s new bond portfolio
Yesterday the Riksbank announced that it will launch a 10 bn SEK bond portfolio. When looking through the details, some interesting conclusions can be drawn...
CPI inflation expected to fall further in April
We expect CPI to have risen by 0.3% m/m and 1.4% y/y in April. Inflation pressures are modest and inflation is falling.
KPI-inflationen väntas falla ytterligare i april
Vi räknar med att KPI steg med 0,3 procent i april på månadsbasis och med 1,4 procent över tolv månader.
A changing Riksbank
We revise our forecast for the Riksbank. We still look for two additional rate cuts this year, but not until the autumn.
A changing Riksbank
We revise our forecast for the Riksbank. We still look for two additional rate cuts this year, but not until the autumn.
Riksbank i förändring
Vi ändrar vår prognos på Riksbankens reporänta. Vi räknar fortfarande med två ytterligare räntesänkningar i år, men de dröjer till i höst.
April
Sverige och kronan – kronan fortsatt stark
Mot slutet av året ser vi EURSEK handla kring 9,05, det är 10 öre lägre än vår tidigare bedömning. Det innebär att kronan kommer att fortsätta att handla inom ett snävt intervall framöver. Riskerna med vår prognos ligger i vår bedömning om ränteutvecklingen i Sverige relativt euroområdet. Vad Riksbanken och ECB gör framöver är relevanta frågeställningar.
Central Bank Watch Sweden – Passive Riksbank pausing
The main reason why rates were left on hold today is that in the Riksbank’s view, monetary policy is already expansionary. Also, the Riksbank seems unwilling to cut rates further and this leads us to raise our repo rate forecast, with the repo rate now bottoming at 1.00% instead of 0.75%.
Sweden update – Few reforms in government spring budget
Our senior analyst, Bengt Roström has published a Sweden update.
Central Bank Watch Sweden – Repeat of February meeting
Our chief analyst, Torbjörn Isaksson have published a central bank watch ahead of Riksbank’s rate decision Wednesday 18 April.
Inflationen närmar sig Riksbankens prognos
Vi räknar med att KPI steg med 0,2 procent i mars på månadsbasis. Inflationen är något lägre än vad Riksbanken har räknat med, men avvikelsen minskar.
Old Riksbank not new enough
Our chief analyst, Torbjörn Isaksson have published a central bank watch regarding the Riksbank.
February
Q4 GDP – marked deceleration
The outcome of today’s Q4 GDP is important ahead of the Riksbank’s interest rate decision in April. Our GDP forecast is considerably below the central bank’s, suggesting an easier monetary policy stance.
Labour market decisive
As expected, today the Riksbank announced its decision to trim the repo rate by 25 bp to 1.50%. In motivating its decision, the bank notes that inflation is low and that Swedish economic growth has slowed more than anticipated.
Few alternatives for the Riksbank
A downward adjustment of the GDP forecast and prospects for a poorer labour market, in combination with low inflation, give the Riksbank few alternatives other than to cut the rate by 25 points at next week's monetary policy meeting.
January
Moderate inflationary pressure in 2012
Inflationary pressure is deemed moderate this year, which opens up for further rate cuts from the Riksbank. The year starts with a 0.6% m/m dip in CPI in January.
The Riksbank’s simple rule of thumb
The Swedish Riksbank follows labour market trends closely and has adjusted its repo rate in correlation to the unemployment rate in no less than 95% of cases over the last 10 years. Based on this, we have formulated a simple rule of thumb for the Riksbank.
December
Sweden Update: Stagnation
We expect the Swedish economy to stagnate in 2012.
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