Conceptually, it looks attractive to look at Swedish BEI wideners as a complement to SEK vs EUR spread compression trades
• We expect CPI inflation to be up by 0.4% m/m in February. • The rise can partly be explained by higher clothing and footwear prices. • If we are right, the difference versus the Riksbank’s forecast will narrow.
• Inflation will stabilize • Back in line with Norges Bank’s forecast
Instant view: The Statistics Sweden’s investments survey was a bit disappointing as for the manufacturing industry. Companies plan to increase investments by a modest 2% for 2014. Moreover, companies are almost always too optimistic in the February survey. On average, companies have overestimated investments by 8% the past 10 years, suggesting that investments will fall in the manufacturing industry in 2014.
Instant view: The monthly indicator of household consumption in January rose by 1.0% over the month and by 0.9% over the year.* This was higher than our forecast and also stronger than the previously released figures for retail sales.
• Fed’s Plosser says tapering too slow • Obama expresses support for Ukraine