Tag: Oil
April
The oil price bottom is behind us
The odds have increased that the bottom for oil prices in the recent downturn is behind us.
Navigatøren: Svakere vekstsignaler senker markedene
Olje I starten av april overrasket både amerikanske og kinesiske nøkkeltall på nedsiden. Sammen med at det vanligvis er et mindre stramt oljemarked i april har oljeprisen blitt satt under betydelig press. Vi tror oljeprisfallet er midlertidig og at økt …
Shipping Essentials Weekly
Macro and Events in Brief Markets fell last week as weaker than expected Chinese GDP and US key figures spurred concerns of a spring slowdown in growth. The drop in risk appetite hit commodities particularly hard and prices fell across …
Nordea WebTV: Oil prices about to bottom out
Oil prices have come under pressure from weak macroeconomic data from large oil consuming countries such as the US and particularly Chinese GDP figures for Q1 surprised on the downside. Financial players seems to be losing confidence in either economic …
Strike again in the Norwegian oil sector tomorrow?
Strike again in the Norwegian oil sector tomorrow? A strike can push up oil/gas prices if it last for some days
March
No signs of relaxation before Easter holiday break in oil market
Don’t let Easter holiday skiing, sunbathing, television or crime novels carry you too far away from the oil market just yet. The oil markets will still be open for another 36 hours so it might be wise to keep at least one eye on the oil chart on your computer screen until the market closes. We expect prices to move sideways and even fall somewhat as trading volumes are likely to decrease before the Easter break tomorrow afternoon.
Nordea WebTV: New oil price forecast
We lift our Brent oil price forecast to USD 112/bbl in 2013 and to USD 115/bbl 2014. Oil prices are expected to remain high over the forecast period, as the market will remain tight by historical standards.
New forecasts: Oil prices creep higher
We lift our Brent oil price forecast to USD 112/bbl (USD 110/bbl) in 2013E and to USD 115/bbl (USD 112/bbl) in 2014E. Oil prices are expected to remain high over the forecast period, as the market will remain tight by historical standards.
Chaves contributed to high oil prices – no changes in the horizon
Oil prices did not react sharply to the news that Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez passed away Tuesday after 14 years in office. Now an election will be held within 30 days and there is considerable uncertainty. Short term, growing political …
Shipping Essentials Weekly
Macro and Events in Brief Political uncertainty following the inconclusive Italian elections and the inability of US policy makers to avoid the initiation of the automatic budget spending cuts added to a cooling of risk appetite last week. Already later …
February
Q1 oil price forecast revised up as market is tightening
The oil market supply/demand balance has tightened more than expected in Q4 and start of Q1 2013. We have therefore decided to adjust upwards our short-term oil price forecast for Q1 to USD 113/barrel from USD 106/barrel.
Nordea WebTV: Tighter supply/demand balance in the oil market
The oil market supply/demand balance has tightened more than expected in Q4 and start of Q1 2013. We have therefore decided to adjust upwards our short-term oil price forecast for Q1 to USD 113/barrel from USD 106/barrel. Oil demand growth …
January
Markets getting too far ahead of economies
Risk-on is likely to dominate in the very near-term but given the lack of fundamental improvements we expect to see a correction sometime during the spring.
Be on the alert – a change in speculators’ risk perception can trigger a massive sell-off in oil
Be on the alert for increasing turbulence and a fall in risk appetite when the debt ceiling debate heats up at the end of February. If we see a sudden turnaround in the perception of the oil market by money managers/speculators, we may see a large sell-off and a sharp fall in oil prices.
Financial forecasts – New Year is over, but the party is not
We have only made minor changes to the financial forecasts this time: We have lifted our mid-year target for the EUR/USD to 1.25, made minor changes to the GBP forecast, lowered our 3M EUR/SEK forecast to 8.60 and we have postponed the first hike from Norges Bank to March 2014 and only expect two hikes in 2014.
Oil price spikes on US fiscal cliff deal
Oil price spikes on US fiscal cliff deal.Brent oil prices jumped by USD 2.8/barrel to USD 112.73/barrel, the highest level since mid-October, after the US in the finalhour found a way out of the budget problems.
December
Global Week Ahead – Focus on policy makers
Here is the Global Week Ahead. The publication covers next week’s major numbers and events.
Nordea WebTV: Lower Brent oil price in 2013 and 2014
As growth in oil demand remains weak and supply is expected to increase, we lower our Brent oil price forecast to USD 108/bbl (USD 111/bbl) in 2013 and to USD 111/bbl (USD 115/bbl) in 2014 from our 4 September update. …
Oil balance improves, but supply risks are high
We lower our Brent oil price forecast to USD 108/bbl (USD 111/bbl) in 2013 and to USD 111/bbl (USD 115/bbl) in 2014 from our 4 September update. The global oil balance is expected to soften on a more subdued demand …
October
Eight reasons why petrol prices should continue to fall before Christmas
European consumers may be able to spend some extra money on Christmas shopping this year. We expect petrol prices to continue to fall in the coming weeks and cut European car owners’ fuel bills. Ew see at least eight reasons why petrol prices should continue to fall before Christmas.
New technology and consumer trends in transport may challenge long-term oil demand
Strong oil price growth from 2003 and increased environmental focus has triggered changes on the demand and supply side. These changes may be a major challenge for the industry in the long run.
September
Oil price moves in mysterious ways
Last week was mysterious for oil prices, which took an unexpected nosedive on Monday. Where will prices move next? The US fiscal cliff high on the agenda in Q4.
Webcast: Oil price moves in mysterious ways
Last week was mysterious for oil prices, which took an unexpected nosedive on Monday. Where will prices move next. See our latest short term oil market update on Nordea WebTV.
Nordea Markets Webinar – Diesel
Nordea Commodities Research hosted a Webinar on the outlook for oil and diesel prices on 11 September 2012. See the recording here.
QE3 will spark risk-taking and push oil and gold higher
Oil prices dropped sharply after the US published a surprisingly weak employment report Friday, but rebounded shortly after as the weak report boosts the case for QE3. The report suggests that the US economy has still not gained enough momentum …
Oil prices stay high but spare capacity buffer should build
Oil prices are expected to remain high over the forecast period as the market will remain tight by historical standards.
High expectations will not be met – risk appetite and oil prices can come under pressure
Oil prices rose Friday after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at more easing, weakening Chinese manufacturing figures could mean that oil demand from emerging economies will drop, and the oil market eagerly awaits conclusions from the IAEA's talks with Iran.
August
US oil boom could slash oil imports and strengthen USD
The fast-growing frontier of US unconventional oils (shale oil/tight oil/oil shale) could slash the US oil import bill and significantly improve the US trade balance.
Double supply whammy gives Obama a pre-election headache
Oil prices continue to trend upwards this morning as escalating supply jitters frightened the market. We expect that oil prices will remain high and continue to trend upwards as long as political risk remains at the fore.
Navigator augusti – kronan vinner guldmedalj i valutaolympiaden
Just nu betraktas Sverige som en ö av tillväxt i ett hav av kaos. Urstark svensk tillväxt det första halvåret, tillsammans med fortsatt sunda svenska statsfinanser, resulterar i att kronan värderas högt av marknaden.
Navigator augusti – kronan vinner guldmedalj i valutaolympiaden
Just nu betraktas Sverige som en ö av tillväxt i ett hav av kaos. Urstark svensk tillväxt det första halvåret, tillsammans med fortsatt sunda svenska statsfinanser, resulterar i att kronan värderas högt av marknaden.
July
Oil prices stuck in a tug-of-war
Oil prices are stuck in a tug-of-war between renewed European financial unrest/weaker growth indicators from China on one side and political unrest on the other.
Rain in Spain weighs on risk sentiment and oil prices
Oil prices have plunged by almost USD 6/barrel as Euro-zone fears once again weigh on risk appetite, just like grey and rainy clouds cover the bright and warm summer sun in Northern Europe.
Saudi export capacity may fall markedly as domestic consumption surges
Saudi Arabian export capacity may fall markedly as domestic consumption surges.This can influence the Kingdom’s ability to work as a swing-producer or the world’s producer of last resort.
A surprise from Bernanke tonight can boost oil appetites
We expect that supply-side risk will likely continue to provide a price floor for oil in Q3. All eyes will be on Fed's Chairman Ben Bernanke as a surprise tonight can boost appetite for oil.
Oil price rise as US tightens the grip on Iran and Chinese growth slows
The US announced a new round of sanctions against Iran and the Chinese Q2 GDP figures showed the economy grew by only 7.6%.
In the midnight hour we could feel her power – oil lockout avoided at the last minute
Norway's Minister of Labour Hanne Bjurstrøm has enforced wage arbitration between offshore workers and the oil companies in the midnight hour to end the 16-day strike.
Oil prices almost as turbulent as this year’s summer holiday weather
Oil prices almost as turbulent as this year’s summer holiday weather, with lockouts on the Norwegian shelf likely to cause production cuts.
The Brent oil price crossed the USD 100/barrel mark
The Brent oil price crossed the USD 100/barrel mark
June
Oil prices – five signs the tide is turning in Q3
We may see a rapid recovery in oil prices when worries over the euro crisis gradually abate and the oil market refocuses on the supply side.
Doubts about success increasing before meeting in Moscow 18-19 June
Third round of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme. Doubts about success increasing before meeting in Moscow 18-19 June.
Week ahead: looking beyond Greece
Most of next week will most likely be spent digesting the Greek elections results and (the chance of) possible stimulus measures, and few interesting entries in the calendar.
Rivalry can leave OPEC hamstrung
Severe controversies between the cartel members can lead to a standstill and/or trouble at what looks like going to be one of the more interesting but highly turbulent OPEC meetings this Thursday (14 June).
Oil price forecast: Perfect storm to fade soon
We expect the near 'perfect storm' for oil prices to fade soon and prices to regain momentum in Q3 and onwards on a combination of tightening oil fundamentals and renewed tensions between Iran and the West.
May
US shale oil frenzy – a paradigm shift for US crude oil tanker traffic/seaborne crude imports
The recent boom in US shale oil production should definitely switch on the warning light for oil exporters and ship owners currently transporting crude to the US market.
Nuclear talks setback pushes up oil price risk premium
Oil prices rose yesterday after the US, China, Russia, France, Britain, Germany and Iran failed to agree on a defined package of reciprocal measures to end an impasse spanning several decades over Iran’s nuclear programme.The failure increases pressure on the parties and is expected to have a bullish effect on oil prices.
Expected slowdown in China’s commodity imports provides little support for pressured markets
The expected slowdown in Chinese commodity imports finally showed up in preliminary April trade data and seems in-line with both our and the market’s expectations.
Oil price drivers: The good, the bad and the ugly
At the moment all eyes are on the uncertain political conditions in the Euro area and Saudi Arabia flooding the market with oil. Until Iran and the P5+1 countries meet on 23 May, we believe oil prices will remain elevated. But as we move into Q3 and demand seasonally rebounds we expect oil prices to pick up steam.
Risk of tight fuel oil market this summer
The recent correction in risky asset markets has also sent residual fuel oil prices sharply lower. We still see a risk of specific tightness in global fuel oil supply over the summer. See our latest webcast where we discuss the outlook for residual fuel oil.
April
Conflict between Sudan and South Sudan can increase upward pressure on longer-dated oil prices
When South Sudan finally gained independence from Khartoum, we warned against the risk of increasing political tension as several critical issues had not been resolved before the separation. Unfortunately we were too right in our warning.
Oil – quiet before the storm?
Calmer waters in the oil market have sent implied volatilities in crude option prices to 5-year lows. We argue that event risks are plentiful in the coming months.
A step in the right direction – but further progress is far from certain
Oil prices fell by more than 1% this morning following talks between Iran and the so-called P5+ 1 countries. After more than a year without negotiations the restart of talks has raised hopes that Iran and the West will finally be able to strike a deal over Tehran’s nuclear programme.
A step in the right direction – but further progress is far from certain
Oil prices fell by more than 1% this morning following talks between Iran and the so-called P5+ 1 countries. After more than a year without negotiations the restart of talks has raised hopes that Iran and the West will finally be able to strike a deal over Tehran’s nuclear programme.
Petrol prices are hovering near record highs
Higher petrol prices are weighing on demand, and US petrol demand for Q1 is down by 5.6% compared to last year.
Iran’s “last chance” very near
Oil prices have been pushed up by around USD 10/barrel this year by the introduction of Iranian oil sanctions and the risk of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facility.
Oil prices stay high as buffer remains uncomfortably low
Politcal tension pushes oil prices to new highs, Obama is struggling with high petrol prices before the election and shale oil production is booming in the US. A discussion of Nordea's updated oil prices forecast and risk scenarios.
Petrol prices will remain high so don’t step on the accelerator this Easter
Drive slowly – don’t rush if you are going to your holiday home this Easter – petrol prices are expected to remain high.
March
Oil prices stay high as buffer remains uncomfortably low
Oil prices are expected to remain high over the forecast period as the EU/US sanctions and oil embargo targeting Iran’s oil exports and economy will continue to be a bullish factor for oil prices through a tightening of oil fundamentals and elevated geopolitical risk.
Saudi Arabia’s efforts to calm the oil market unlikely to succeed alone
We doubt that Saudi Arabia’s latest efforts to calm the oil market will alone be enough to cool sentiment or bring oil prices down to the Kingdom’s desired USD 100/barrel level, as OPEC’s effective spare capacity will quickly fall below the comfortable threshold of 3% of global supply.
Öljyn hinnan nousu ei suuri ongelma talouskasvulle – toistaiseksi
Euromääräinen raakaöljyn hinta on nyt korkeammalla kuin koskaan. Öljyn hinnan nousu pitää inflaation korkeana vaimentaen siten kasvunäkymiä, mutta nykyisillä hintatasoilla vaikutus lienee vielä maltillinen. Kuitenkin jos Iran-kiista kärjistyy, voi tilanne muuttua dramaattisesti.
Emergency stock release to curb oil prices – for better or worse?
High and increasing oil prices could jeopardise the economic recovery and reduce the chances of President Obama being reelected. The sharp upswing in oil prices is also a major concern for other net oil-importing countries.
Jittery oil prices as safety buffer falls
Brent oil prices jumped by more than USD 4/barrel to USD 127.80/barrel yesterday surpassing last year’s high, on rumours of a pipeline blast in Saudi Arabia.
Leave your gas guzzler in the garage if political tension remains high
Oil prices measured in euros reached an all-time high last Friday at EUR 93.26/barrel, just surpassing the previous record from 2008.
February
Markets too complacent
Considering the macro risks hanging over the global economy, we argue that markets may be too complacent. We see four downside risks that could materialise this year, undermining global growth and eventually negatively affecting investor confidence and market valuations of risky assets.
Chief Economist’s Corner – Fuel for the crisis
Hardly has the dust settled on the endgame for Greece than new threats to global economic growth emerge on the horizon.
A double whammy for debt burdened European oil importers
Friday the Brent oil price reached a new all-time-high at EUR 92.26/barrel breaking thebold record from July 2008 at EUR 91.49/barrel.
New oil price forecast – Commodities WebTV
It's exciting times in the oil markets and yesterday the Brent Oil price reached USD 120/barrel for the first time since June last year.
Oil market to stay tight for longer
We have raised our baseline average Brent oil price forecast for 2012E to USD 118/barrel from our 1 December forecast of USD 109/barrel.
Oil market soon balanced on a knife-edge
The EU/US sanctions and oil embargo targeting Iran's oil exports and economy are having a big impact already.
Oil Market monthly – January 2012
We expect oil prices will trade around the current level at USD 110/barrel if the verbal war between the West and Iran continues.
November
Paradigm shift for US oil production
Paradigm shift for US oil production
August
Updated Oil Price Forecast – Blurry short-term outlook
Baseline scenario: Long term oil prices still trending up, but blurry short-term outlook Low growth scenario: Slowdown can push oil prices below USD 85/barrel threshold
Oil at USD 100/barrel – better for consumers, no worries for producers
Nordea Commodities Research: Not surprisingly, oil prices continue to drop sharply today by 1.9%, but it is now trading just above USD 104/barrel.
July
No second round of emergency oil stock releases
IEA announced today that it will not go for a second round of emergency stock release as the Bureau concludes that: “the Action served a market need by adding liquidity and bridging the gap to additional supplies from OPEC”.
Oil prices and changes in EUR/USD
Oil Market Update A challenging week for EUR/USD and oil prices, how strong are the spill-over effects? Direction of change between oil prices and EUR/USD important, but not clear cut Real oil price changes may cause changes in the real exchange rate, but little proof of the opposite
Petrol and Diesel – Summer holiday outlook
No clouds in the petrol market, but grey clouds on the horizon for the diesel market this summer
IEA changing roles: the world’s oil police
The decision by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to make 60m barrels of oil available from the emergency reserves of its members to offset the production problems in Libya came as a surprise, to put it mildly.
June
IEA sends a clear signal of mistrust to OPEC
Oil prices fell by around USD 4/barrel following a press release by the IEA saying that the 28 IEA member countries have agreed to release 60 million barrels of oil in the coming months in response to the ongoing disruption of oil supply in Libya.
Oil Market Update – OPEC meeting
How eager is OPEC really to lower oil prices? OPEC will increase quotas by 1-1.5mb/d to reduce prices and meet higher oil demand OPEC’s unofficial price expected to have increased to USD 85-105/barrel as expensive spending programmes weigh on budgets Internal cooperation put under pressure – OPEC can lose control of market if cooperation fails
Impact of China’s looming power shortage
Energy & Metals Market Update: China to suffer largest power shortage since 2004 this summer on drought and high coal prices. We see upside risk to our Brent price forecasts in H2 2011 on increased oil and diesel demand. Aluminium and steel production to be most affected by power cuts. Upside risk to prices.
November
A Chinese shale gas Klondyke?
When China changes its energy mix, it will not go unnoticed in global energy markets. A sharp ramp-up in shale gas, unconventional gas production and LNG/pipeline import might be needed to meet the ambitious natural gas plan. A Chinese shale gas Klondyke? At first glance there is certainly potential…
September
US shale gas fever – a potential pandemic?
The shale gas fever is raging in the US, and the oil companies are fighting to secure shale gas exploration rights in Europe and China. Could the shale gas fever really turn into a pandemic? New production technology has substantially …
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