Tag: Inflation
May
Too early to make the bear market call on US yields
We expect rates to remain within the trading ranges that we have seen since the end of last year
Sweden: CPIF inflation 0.5% in April, well below forecasts
Instant view The CPI fell by 0.2% m/m in April, 0.3% point below forecasts. The main surprises were prices for clothing and footwear as well as package travelling that came out approximately 0.1% point below our forecast, respectively. Also, ticket …
Sweden Update: Inför KPI i april – botten nådd?
Vi räknar med att KPI steg med 0,1 procent i april. Riskerna ligger på nedsidan. Botten kan vara nådd för tolvmånaderstalen för den här gången. Läs rapporten: KPI april 2013
Low Euro-area inflation – good news or bad?
The Euro-area flash estimate for inflation in April fell to 1.2%! This follows a reading of 1.7% in March and we have looked a bit deeper into a few questions: Temporary or permanent? Good news or bad? ECB reaction or not?
April
Central Bank Watch Sweden: A dove leaving the Riksbank
• Deputy Governor Lars EO Svensson to leave Executive Board • July rate cut somewhat less likely
Soft Riksbank stays on hold
The Riksbank today sent a soft tone to markets, despite leaving the rate unchanged at 1.00% as widely expected. The reason is that the repo rate path was revised down quite substantially for 2014.
Central Bank Watch Sweden: The Riksbank on hold
We expect the repo rate to be left unchanged next week as well as the rest of the year. Risks to our repo rate forecast are clearly on the downside
Central Bank Watch Sweden: Riksbanken ligger lågt
Många faktorer talar för en räntesänkning. Vi bedömer ändå att Riksbanken lämnar reporäntan oförändrad såväl vid nästa veckas penningpolitiska möte som senare i år.
Sweden: CPI preview and index-linked bonds
We see March CPI at -0.2 % y/y (0.3 % m/m). Clothing prices are currently influenced by a number of factors, both on the upside and on the downside. Weak retail sales and a strong currency speak for lower prices. …
Sweden Update – Ahead of March CPI: Clothing prices the wild card
We expect the CPI to be up 0.3% m/m in March. It seems increasingly certain that inflation will remain low and that the Riksbank will have to revise down its inflation forecast for coming years.
Sweden Update – Inför KPI i mars: Klädpriser joker igen
Vi räknar med att KPI steg med 0,3 procent i mars. Allt mer tyder på att den låga inflationen består och att Riksbanken kommer att justera ned inflationsprognosen för de kommande åren.
March
Sweden: Long term inflation expectations below 2%
Inflation expectations for the 5y horizon fell to an 8 year low and below 2% in March, increasing pressures on the Riksbank to cut rates.
CPI preview and index-linked bonds
February CPI We see CPI at -0.3 % y/y (0.3 % m/m) Broad based and seasonally normal increase in prices for February. As usually rents are increased at the beginning of the year although this year somewhat less. Volatility in …
Dansk inflationspreview
Huslejestigninger trækker priserne op I februar forventer vi en stigning i forbrugerprisindekset på 1,1% m/m, svarende til 1,2% å/å. Hvis vi får ret vil det i givet fald være den laveste årsstigningstakt der er registreret i forbrugerprisindekset siden oktober 2009. …
February
Sweden: January CPI as expected
The January CPI came out 0.8% m/m, as we had expected and in line with consensus. Thus, inflation is low and also below the Riksbank’s forecast, supporting our view that probably there is an additional rate cut in the pipeline.
Swedish Week Ahead
- All eyes on the labour market - NSI: Spot on consensus
Sweden Update, Ahead of the CPI: January chill
CPI inflation fell by 0.8% m/m in January according to our forecast. There are considerable uncertainties. Risks are skewed towards a higher reading. Our forecast is below the Riksbank’s view.
Sweden Update, Inför KPI: Januarifrossa
KPI föll med 0,8 procent på månadsbasis i januari enligt vår prognos. Osäkerheten är stor. Risken för ett högre utfall överväger. Vår prognos är lägre än Riksbankens.
Sweden January CPI preview and index-linked bonds
We expect a flat CPI y/y (-0.8% m/m). The seasonal drop in clothing and footwear after the holiday in December the major contributor to this month’s print. Huge uncertainty regarding the yearly reweighting of the CPI basket, especially when it comes …
Central Bank Watch Sweden: En sista sänkning
Vi räknar med att Riksbanken sänker reporäntan med 25 punkter till 0,75 procent vid nästa veckas penningpolitiska möte. Den nya räntebanan signalerar sannolikt en oförändrad ränta på 0,75 procent under återstoden av året, vilket också är vår prognos.
January
Sweden: Inflation above expectations for once
CPI-inflation was 0.1% point above the Riksbank’s forecast in December. However, today’s figures do not change much.
Sweden CPI preview and index-linked bonds
December CPI • We expect a y/y CPI at -0.1 % (+0.2 % m/m) • Apart from the seasonal contributions from food (on the upside) to clothing and footwear (on the downside), one can note that a positive contribution is expected to …
Ahead of CPI inflation December: CPI inflation still below zero
CPI inflation rose by 0.2% m/m in December according to our forecast. That is marginally above the Riksbank’s view. However, inflation pressures are low, underlining that the Riksbank has more work to do.
Inför KPI i december: KPI-inflationen kvar under noll
KPI steg med 0,2 procent på månadsbasis i december enligt vår prognos. Det är aningen högre än Riksbankens bedömning. Inflationstrycket är dock lågt, vilket stärker bilden av att Riksbanken har mer jobb att göra.
December
Swedish X-mas Indicators
Here is a chart-pack about the Swedish economy to flip through before the holidays. Nordea sees short-term weakness, a deteriorating labour market and low inflation for longer. Swedish indicators Dec 2012
Sweden: NIER revises down outlook
As expected the National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) adjusted their forecast on the Swedish economy downwards. The NIER is more pessimistic on the Swedish outlook than the Riksbank.
Expect one more rate cut
As generally expected, the Riksbank announced a repo rate cut to 1.0 percent. We maintain our forecast that the Riksbank will deliver another rate cut in February.
Räkna med en räntesänkning till
Som allmänt förväntat meddelade Riksbanken att reporäntan sänks till 1,0 procent. Vi står fast vid vår bedömning att Riksbanken sänker räntan igen i februari.
Sweden: The Riksbank signals some further easening
Today’s signal from the lowered rate path supports our forecast of yet another rate cut by 25 bps in February.
Macro Strategy – Watch EU and US CPI & US Capacity Utilization
As we peer into today’s data we focus on CPI and capacity utilization as these variables will be influential to our analysis of positioning risks. In terms of inflation we expect that both sides of the Atlantic will demonstrate a …
Zero inflation, timing problem in high value linkers
We expect a y/y CPI of zero in October and negative readings in the start of 2013. Mortgage rates continue to be a major driving force on the downside for CPI and this month, also fuel prices are contributing negatively. With …
Draghi turns slightly dovish
The overall impression of the press meeting is that that Draghi has turned slightly more dovish, but not enough to make a clear signal of an upcoming rate cut. However, the ECB has enough ammunition to cut interest rates in Q1, if the economy weakens more than currently expected.
November
Sweden: Broad based drop in confidence in November
As expected, the situation in the manufacturing industry deteriorated further in November according to NIER’s Business Tendency Survey. Confidence dropped to -18 from -16, in line with consensus but somewhat above our call. The index for order intake from export …
More rate cuts in the pipeline
We adjust our forecast for the Riksbank’s repo rate. The reasons are surprisingly low inflation and a hike in our unemployment forecast.
Fler räntesänkningar i pipeline
Vi justerar vår prognos på Riksbankens reporänta. Orsakerna är överraskande låg inflation och en uppskrivning av vår prognos på arbetslösheten.
Sweden CPI preview and index-linked bonds
Mortgage rates continue to be a major driving force on the downside for CPI. We see the y/y headline CPI to increase by 0.5% in October (published tomorrow 09.30 local time). Despite the low Swedish inflation and increasing supply from the debt …
Fading inflation
According to our forecast falling mortgage rates and lower fuel prices have contributed to keeping the CPI flat on the month in October. This implies a year-on-year figure at 0.5%. Much indicates that the year-on-year figure will decline further in …
Inflationen som försvann
Fallande bolåneräntor och billigare drivmedel bidrar till att KPI var oförändrad på månasbasis i oktober enligt vår prognos. Det innebär ett tolvmånaderstal på 0,5 procent. Mycket tyder på att tolvmånaderstalet sjunker kommande månader och närmar sig noll.
October
Riksbanken öppnar dörren
Riksbanken lämnade som väntat styrräntan oförändad på 1,25 procent. Räntebanan sänktes, också det väntat. Vi är stärkta i vår uppfattning att Riksbanken sänker reporäntan i december.
Central Bank Watch: Riksbank under pressure from low inflation
We believe that the Riksbank will leave the repo rate unchanged at next week’s monetary policy meeting. However, the rate path will probably be lowered, paving the way for the rate cut that we anticipate will come in December.
Låg inflation pressar Riksbanken
Vår bedömning är att Riksbanken lämnar reporäntan oförändrad vid nästa veckas penningpolitiska möte. Däremot sänks troligen räntebanan, vilket öppnar upp för den räntesänkning som vi räknar med kommer i december.
Poland: More reasons for rate cuts
CPI inflation in September proved lower than expected, strengthening expectations for start of monetary easing in Poland. The PLN found some support in better than expected balance of payments data, which offset negative impact of low CPI reading.
Swedish September CPI below forecasts
The September CPI came out at 0.4% m/m, below our forecast and consensus at 0.6%. Also CPIF-inflation was lower than expected.
Låg KPI-inflation kan falla ytterligare
Vi räknar med att KPI steg med 0,6 procent på månadsbasis i september. Tolvmåna-derstalet är därmed oförändrat sedan augusti på 0,7 procent.
Falling mortgage rates and lagging break-evens
September's high CPI is being shadowed by falling mortgage rates, prospects of further rate cuts from the Riksbank, a strong currency, low electricity price and full water reservoirs - the downside risk scenario for inflation is in the driver's seat.
Swedish inflation expectations remain low
According to the Prospera’s survey released this morning, inflation expectations for the 5y horizon, which are in focus for monetary policy, came in at 2.0 % for October.
September
Poland: Inflation softens a bit
CPI figures for August showed that inflation softened a bit, but this is not enough to trigger the first interest rate cut already in October.
Swedish August CPI well below the Riksbank’s view
Inflation was 0.3% point below the Riksbank’s forecast in August. Coupled with rising unemployment, this supports our view of further rate cuts.
Swedish CPI preview and linkers
CPI for August is released on Thursday 13th. We see a m/m increase of 0.3 % with downside risks. The real rate curve has room to continue its steepening. We also note that gold and US break-even inflation have moved upward while CDS spreads continue to compress - expectations of balance sheet expansion from Fed and ECB are creeping into linkers...
Ahead of Swedish August CPI: Recoil in energy price
We estimate a 0.3% increase in the CPI m/m, and 0.9% y/y in August. Risks are skewed to the downside. Our call for August is below the Riksbank’s forecast.
Inför KPI i augusti: Energiprisrekyl
Vi räknar med att KPI steg med 0,3 procent på månadsbasis och med 0,9 procent i årstakt i augusti. Riskerna för ett lägre utfall överväger. Vår prognos för augusti är läge än Riks-bankens bedömning.
Swedish and global Week ahead
Sweden: - Employment to edge down in August - Head-winds in manufacturing - Q2 GDP to be revised down - August CPI: Recoil in energy prices
Riksbank succumbs to pressure
The Riksbank's rate cut of 25 bp should be seen in light of the heavy pressure on the bank lately. Today's rate cut replaces the one that we previously expected in October. However, we reiterate our forecast of a 25 bp cut in December, leaving the repo rate at 1.00% at the turn of the year.
The Riksbank yet again delivered a surprise
The Riksbank decided to cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 1.25%. Main motivating factors to the rate cuts were are lower inflation pressure, via stronger SEK and higher productivity.
August
With the foot on the accelerator
We believe that the Riksbank will leave the repo rate and rate path unchanged at next week's monetary policy meeting. The main reason is the surprisingly strong domestic economy.
Riksbanken med foten på gasen
Riksbanken lämnar såväl reporäntan som räntebanan oförändrad vid nästa veckas penningpolitiska möte enligt vår bedömning. Huvudorsaken är den överraskande starka inhemska ekonomin.
Sweden: Producer prices down more than expected in July
Producer prices came out lower than forecasts in July, due largely to the exchange rate.
Cheføkonomens hjørne: Sure don’t look none too prosperous
Som barn så jeg John Steinbecks socialrealistiske mesterværk ” Vredens Druer” i fjernsynet. Det var i den film, at Henry Fonda for alvor slog i gennem i rollen som landarbejderen Tom Joad, der som følge af den ekstreme tørke, der ramte USA under den store depression i 1930’erne, bliver tvunget til at rive tilværelsen i Midtvesten op ved rode og sammen med sin familie søge lykken vestpå i Californien.
Swedish CPI preview and index-linked bonds
We expect that CPI will decrease in July corresponding to a y/y inflation rate of 0.7%.
Hösten rik på inflationsteman
Enligt vår prognos föll KPI med 0,3 procent på månadsbasis i juli. Det är gott om inflationsteman inför hösten – kronan, livsmedel, bolåneräntorna och energipriserna.
Sweden: Several inflation themes during the autumn
We expect CPI to fall by 0.3% in July. There are plenty of inflation themes ahead of the autumn – the SEK, food prices, mortgage rates and energy prices.
July
Poland: Inflation high, despite little impact of Euro 2012
CPI inflation surprised on the upside in June, even despite little evidence of price effects of Euro 2012. This provides some support for hawkish camp at the Polish MPC.
The Riksbank leaves repo rate unchanged
The Riksbank decided to leave the repo rate unchanged at 1.50%. As at the previous meeting, the Executive Board was divided in its decision. Dep. Governors Ekholm and Svensson voted for a repo rate cut to 1.00%.
June
Swedish linkers ahead of June CPI
Energy continues to pull Swedish inflation down. Still value in short-end linkers...
CPIF bottoms out in May
According to our estimates, CPI fell by 0.1 per cent in May m/m. The decline was due to falling energy prices.
KPIF-inflationen bottnar i maj
Vi räknar med att KPI föll med 0,1 procent på månadsbasis i maj. Fallande energipriser förklarar nedgången.
Observations on Swedish linkers ahead of May CPI
Ahead of tomorrow's release of Swedish May CPI we make some interesting observations on Swedish index-linked bonds...
Swedish week ahead
This week we forecast no dramatic changes in the CPI for May. On Friday we expect data to support a weakening of the Swedish labour market.
April
Inflationen närmar sig Riksbankens prognos
Vi räknar med att KPI steg med 0,2 procent i mars på månadsbasis. Inflationen är något lägre än vad Riksbanken har räknat med, men avvikelsen minskar.
February
På vei mot lavere inflasjonsmål?
Årets årstale av sentralbanksjefen skapte politiske bølger. Han anbefalte regjeringen å senke handlingsregelen for bruk av oljepenger til 3 prosent av oljefondets verdi, fra dagens 4 prosent. Reaksjonene fra regjeringen må nærmest karakteriseres som smekk over fingrene til sentralbanksjefen; handlingsregelen skal du ikke blande deg bort i.
Labour market decisive
As expected, today the Riksbank announced its decision to trim the repo rate by 25 bp to 1.50%. In motivating its decision, the bank notes that inflation is low and that Swedish economic growth has slowed more than anticipated.
Norway: No rate cut from Norges Bank
Core inflation measured by CPI-ATE came out at 1.3% y/y in January compared to 1.0% in December.
January
Moderate inflationary pressure in 2012
Inflationary pressure is deemed moderate this year, which opens up for further rate cuts from the Riksbank. The year starts with a 0.6% m/m dip in CPI in January.
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