Tag: Hungary
April
Hungary tilted towards further rate cuts
The Hungarian central bank cut its policy rate for the ninth consecutive meeting in line with expectations. The risks remain tilted towards further cuts, but it all depends on the HUF and inflation developments.
March
Hungary – uncertainty remains high
No surprises here – Hungary cut its base rate for the eighth consecutive time by 25bp, bringing it down to a record-low 5.00%. Further interest rate cuts are possible, but they depend on inflation pressure and financial market uncertainty. No signs of unconventional monetary policy measures, which should help to firm HUF.
Exciting times for monetary policy in Hungary
The parliament expectedly nominated economy minister Matolcsy as central bank chief. The appointment increases the likelihood of unconventional monetary policy measures, although these are unlikely in the short term. With all the negative sentiment surrounding Hungary, don't forget the possibility of a positive surprise from a recovering Germany!
February
Monetary easing continues in Hungary
No surprises here – Hungary cut its base rate for the seventh consecutive time by 25bp, bringing it down to 5.25%. The monetary policy stance is likely to remain loose in the coming months as well, especially as the current central bank governor steps down after this meeting. On top of rate cuts, unconventional monetary policy easing would not be a suprise.
Hungary: Central bank turning completely dovish?
One of the main events in Hungary this spring is the stepping down of current central bank chief Simor in early March. The next central bank chief will be someone who plays well with PM Orbán. The main risk is that the central bank will be ready to give up some of the focus on the inflation target in favour of boosting growth, thus undermining long-term credibility of the central bank.
Hungary-IMF negotiations have reached the end of the road
It has become increasingly clear that there will be no new arrangement between Hungary and the IMF/EU. The encouraging market sentiment is helping Hungary meet its external financing needs without IMF support. However, an IMF package can be much more valuable than the cash itself through the discipline and accountability it introduces to economic policies.
Struggling Hungary – rate cuts will continue
Dismal. The only word that properly describes Hungary’s GDP data today. Today’s weak GDP data and lower than expected inflation cements expectations of further rate cuts. Risks are certainly mounting for further easing beyond 5.25%.
January
Hungarian central bank cuts key rate
The Hungarian central bank cut its key rate by 25bp to 5.50%. We are pencilling in one more rate cut over the near term, but the weakness of the HUF and the still elevated inflation rate will remain decisive factors for further monetary easing.
June
EM FX Monocle – Into the summer lull
"Life after the storm" was a good title for our May EM FX Monocle – indeed, EM FX volatilities have declined and the currencies started to recover in June.
May
Emerging Markets FX Monocle – Life after the storm
The storm did come after the calm, as our April issue of the Monocle suggested. It may get worse before it gets better in the coming weeks, but not for long.
April
HUF – Relief, but hold your horses for now
The HUF and HUF assets rallied on Tuesday’s hints and yesterday’s decision from the EC to enter the negotiations on financial assistance. But we believe it is too early to be relieved yet.
Emerging Markets FX Monocle – Calm before the storm?
Following the good start of the year, EM currencies did not hold on to the gains. Yet the orderly gradual EM FX decline has not produced much volatility creating the impression of a bomb waiting to explode if only another “black swan” event strikes.
March
Emerging Markets FX Monocle – a lot of news, little action
Risk is mispriced, again. And hence caution is still essential. But unless some of the key risks actually materialise, we are most likely to see Emerging currencies drift stronger over the coming months.
January
Emerging Markets Outlook 2012
Many interesting and globally important stories in easily digestable format.
Hungary – The good, the bad and the ugly
VIDEO - Hungary has been one of the top stories in the Emerging Market universe in the past few months. With the country downgraded to “junk” now by all agencies IMF help is being negotiated.
October
Emerging Markets – from FX risks to liquidity risks
The key message in our new Emerging Markets FX Outlook is that FX risks are lower, but liquidity risks are higher. We currently see interesting opportunities in CNY, risk of emergency hikes in Hungary and a strong PLN by year-end.
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Latest tweets
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Can’t fall asleep without short CHF @1.2520
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Swedish FSA implements a risk weight floor of 15 percent for Swedish mortgages. Another nail in the coffin.
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RT @edgarsrinkevics: AirBaltic flight from Amsterdam to Riga is delayed because of cat who has arrived from Riga and refused to disembark the plane #Ilovemyjob:)
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Dudley ‘sees risk investors could over-react to normalization.’ Oh, like they have overreacted to the abnormalization? #Fed
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What a waste of a slide #Fed http://t.co/sawnYKLzZ8
