Tag: Foreign exchange

EM FX: Ukraine takes the headlines again

The Ukrainian President's deadline for rebels occupying state buildings in Eastern Ukraine to lay down their weapons have passed. Markets are awaiting news. EM FX is slightly weaker this morning, especially the RUB, the PLN and the TRY, but it seems that markets are becoming more resilient to headline news from Ukraine.

SEK FI & FX Strategy - Riksbank conclusions

Riksbank conclusions

Derivatbladet – Riksbanken fast i en rävsax

• Fed höjer räntan 17x25 gånger innan 2020! • ECB laddar kanonen med såpbubblor • Riksbanken står inför ett ovisst beslut

FX: let's talk QE, EUR

There has been guessing and hinting about ECB doing QE. This is not our baseline, but what if - how will EUR react? Will this time be different, why?

SEK FI & FX Strategy - Riksbank scenario analysis

Riksbank scenario analysis

SEK FI & FX Strategy - Ocular inspection

In this analysis we conduct an ocular inspection of how markets expect the Riksbank to move and interact with Fed, BoE, ECB and Norges Bank, in the years ahead...

ECB sidelines Danish central bank

• DKK weakening on the back of wider interest rate differentials and no intervention • The central bank’s monetary policy reaction function is unchanged ... • ... but persistent uncertainty about the ECB provides an incentive for the central bank to use the intervention weapon • A rate hike in Denmark is not likely until late summer

ECB holder Nationalbanken i skak

• Udvidet renteforskel og ingen intervention svækker den danske krone • Nationalbankens reaktionsfunktion er uændret … • … men fortsat usikkerhed om ECB betyder, at Nationalbanken i højere grad har incitament til at bruge interventionsvåbnet • Dansk renteforhøjelse kommer først i sensommeren

TRY: Strong Erdogan

Turkey’s Prime Minister Erdogan on Sunday won what appeared to be a strong victory for his AK party in local elections amid a tumultuous corruption scandal.

FX: USD wants tails

The market sentiment likely to stay positive, not in the USD favor. EURUSD may be copying previous months' development around ECB meeting.

EM FX: Looking for bright spots

After three sell-off rounds, several devaluations and a near-miss war, things seem to have taken a turn for the better in the Emerging Market universe and investors look for the bright spots.

EM FX Monocle – Differentiation

Emerging Market FX remains vulnerable to bouts of risk aversion as global financial conditions tighten and fears of a hard landing in China resurface. However, vulnerabilities differ across the EM universe.

BRL: Credit downgrade

Yesterday, Standard & Poor moved to downgrade Brazil’s sovereign long-term credit rating to BBB- from BBB. The downgrade was motivated on “fiscal slippages”. Outlook is now stable.

Navigator mars - Riksbanken mobiliserar inget kronförsvar

I dagsläget prognostiserar marknaden en 20% sannolikhet för en 25 punkters sänkning. Nordeas prognos är förvisso en oförändrad reporänta men vi gör bedömningen att räntebanan sannolikt justeras ned vilket riskerar att försvaga kronan

New Financial Forecasts

12 March we released a new Economic Outlook with updated real-economic forecasts for 2014 and 2015. We also updated our longer-term financial forecasts for central banks, rates, FX and commodities. We have made no changes since then, but this slide set is intended to give a quick overview of our main financial forecasts.

Riksbank preview: easing prospects mispriced

While the unit labour cost pressure is aligned with the Riksbank alternative repo rate scenario, where they project to cut rates down to 0.50%, the probability for a rate cut priced in by markets is a meager 5%...

FX: USD sugar rush

The spike in USD last week will likely be corrected. European rates follow US rates - concern for ECB? Only with a sizeable drop in PMIs...