A re-cap of market views...
Tag: Foreign exchange
RUB has been under pressure recently as tsunami of capital outflow, caused by the threat of sanctions against Russia, washed away optimists and buyers of RUB-denominated assets. The pace of capital outflow increased in Q1 2014, reaching unimaginable $51 bn. (compared with $62.7 bn. in 2013). The volatility stays high on the Russian markets and the rouble remains focused on geopolitics.
The Ukrainian President's deadline for rebels occupying state buildings in Eastern Ukraine to lay down their weapons have passed. Markets are awaiting news. EM FX is slightly weaker this morning, especially the RUB, the PLN and the TRY, but it seems that markets are becoming more resilient to headline news from Ukraine.
Despite the QE-rumours, we still believe that the EUR has some upside left versus the USD short term. Find out why in this edition of our flagship FX publication, alongside views on NOK, SEK, JPY, AUD, CAD, NZD and Emerging Markets currencies. Enjoy!
Following this morning’s CPI figures, the Riksbank is widely expected to cut rates. But how can you trade SEK and Swedish Rates in this environment? Find out more on that, alongside updated views from our macroeconomists and strategists across the Nordic region. Northern Light gives you everything you need on Scandinavian Macro, FX and Fixed Income. Enjoy!
Market commentary in the wake of record low CPIF inflation
• Fed höjer räntan 17x25 gånger innan 2020! • ECB laddar kanonen med såpbubblor • Riksbanken står inför ett ovisst beslut
There has been guessing and hinting about ECB doing QE. This is not our baseline, but what if - how will EUR react? Will this time be different, why?
Riksbank scenario analysis
In this analysis we conduct an ocular inspection of how markets expect the Riksbank to move and interact with Fed, BoE, ECB and Norges Bank, in the years ahead...
• DKK weakening on the back of wider interest rate differentials and no intervention • The central bank’s monetary policy reaction function is unchanged ... • ... but persistent uncertainty about the ECB provides an incentive for the central bank to use the intervention weapon • A rate hike in Denmark is not likely until late summer
• Udvidet renteforskel og ingen intervention svækker den danske krone • Nationalbankens reaktionsfunktion er uændret … • … men fortsat usikkerhed om ECB betyder, at Nationalbanken i højere grad har incitament til at bruge interventionsvåbnet • Dansk renteforhøjelse kommer først i sensommeren
Turkey’s Prime Minister Erdogan on Sunday won what appeared to be a strong victory for his AK party in local elections amid a tumultuous corruption scandal.
The market sentiment likely to stay positive, not in the USD favor. EURUSD may be copying previous months' development around ECB meeting.
After three sell-off rounds, several devaluations and a near-miss war, things seem to have taken a turn for the better in the Emerging Market universe and investors look for the bright spots.