Although the Polish central bank is likely to hibernate for the next few winter months, as development of economic situation is unlikely to trigger a change even only in wording of the MPC, monetary policy outlook in Poland for the next year is very interesting and highly uncertain.
As Nordea's Chief Economist in Poland, Piotr deals mainly with analysing and forecasting the Polish economy with a focus on the FX and interest rate markets. His detailed knowledge of local economic factors gives unique value to Nordea's customers both in the Polish market and internationally. Piotr often presents his views on the economy and markets in the Polish financial media.
Piotr is a University of Warsaw graduate and has previously worked for Raiffeisen Bank Poland as Head of Research Team, Bank Zachodni WBK as Senior Economist and the Centre for Social and Economic Research as Economist. He has also led a macroeconomic analysis team in the advisory programme for the president of Georgia.
•Emerging Markets will continue to be the main source of growth in the coming several years. •EM should not be regarded as one region but as a fragmented group with many diversities. •Be aware of the fundamentally vulnerable currencies, but don’t lose faith in them all
The trend is clear. Emerging Markets currencies have suffered in the past month as the global risk sentiment worsened and the USD strengthened (until late May). We expect this to remain the pattern for the near future and would be just what the EM central banks desire amid the current beggar-thy-neighbours environment