DCSIMG

Mikael Sarwe

Head of Research & Strategy, Sweden

Mikael heads the teams responsible for Nordea Markets' Swedish macro research, fixed income including credit strategy, FX strategy and Structured Advisory. In his research he focuses on forecasting the broader macro trends and how these impact on the various markets.

Prior to Nordea, Mikael worked nine years as a senior portfolio manager at SEB and the latter part also as head of SEB's fixed income hedge funds. Before that he was Chief Economist at JP Bank.


Mikael Sarwe

Sweden: Inflation well above expectations

CPI and CPIF increased 0.2% m/m, which was markedly higher than expectations. CPIF y/y at 0.8% was also higher than the Riksbank 0.6% y/y forecast and for the upcoming two months the Riksbank forecast suddenly looks very low.

SEK FI & FX Strategy - Riksbank: craving for softness

Next week, on 3rd July, the Riksbank will announce rates. As for the rate decision, we expect the bank to deliver the 25bp cut that markets almost fully price in. However, that doesn’t look enough, as the future rate projection looks increasingly obsolete in comparison with messages from neighboring central banks. As such, we believe there is scope for a dovish cut, with a significant downward revision of the rate path and an indication that the repo rate could be lowered again...

Sweden & the SEK: Heads or tails

As summer kicks off we have made a slightly more in-depth analysis of a number of FX themes related to SEK. Hopefully the themes can highlight some new angles of the SEK and serve as food for thought ahead of the autumn.

Northern Lights - Rate path Bonanza

The Scandinavian central bank roller coaster continues. Norway lowered the rate path massively and Sweden is expected to follow. Scandinavian currencies are getting whacked but to us it seems overdone. In Denmark, spreads have gone out and now looks interesting. Finnish bonds have weakened but they are beginning to look interesting. Find out more on that, alongside updated views from our macroeconomists and strategists across the Nordic region. Enjoy!

Sverige & SEK: Krona eller klave – Riksbanken vs ECB

Inför sommaren har vi gjort en djupdykning i ett antal valutateman relaterade till kronan. Förhoppningsvis kan det belysa nya vinklar av SEK-analysen och fungera som en tankeställare inför sommaren och hösten.

Sarwes oborstade tankar

Globala centralbanker har pulvriserat riskpremier till nivåer vi inte sett sedan precis innan finanskrisen. Värderingarna på de flesta finansiella tillgångsmarknaderna har dragit iväg. Den förväntade framtida avkastningen har krympt. Så är läget inför sommaren.

FI & FX Strategy - Scandies through the lens of ECB action

This piece of research is an effort to try to outline if there are any possible unintended market consequences, with focus on the Scandies, which may follow in the foot-prints of further expansionary action by the ECB...

Northern Lights - Divergent scandi outlook

Our monthly Scandinavian flagship publication is out. In here you find everything you need to know on Nordeas view on Scandinavian Macro, FX and Fixed Income. Enjoy!

Riksbank Minutes – Statements and fixed income conclusions

In our view, the Riksbank Minutes had a very soft tone, where several board members opened up for further policy easing. In particular in the scenario where further downside risks to inflation will be realized, and as we all know, such downside risks revealed themselves directly after the April policy announcement (with CPIF recording the lowest print ever and a full 0.3% below the fresh Riksbank forecast released the day before).

Northern Lights: Goldilocks?

Following this morning’s CPI figures, the Riksbank is widely expected to cut rates. But how can you trade SEK and Swedish Rates in this environment? Find out more on that, alongside updated views from our macroeconomists and strategists across the Nordic region. Northern Light gives you everything you need on Scandinavian Macro, FX and Fixed Income. Enjoy!

SEK FI & FX Strategy - Riksbank conclusions

Riksbank conclusions

SEK FI & FX Strategy - Riksbank scenario analysis

Riksbank scenario analysis

Riksbank preview: easing prospects mispriced

While the unit labour cost pressure is aligned with the Riksbank alternative repo rate scenario, where they project to cut rates down to 0.50%, the probability for a rate cut priced in by markets is a meager 5%...

Northern Lights - Scandi central banks on hold

Our monthly Scandinavian flagship publication is out. In here you find everything you need to know on Nordeas view on Scandinavian Macro, FX and Fixed Income. Enjoy!

Northern Lights - To cut or not to cut?

Our new Scandi flagship publication. Everything you want to know about the developments in Scandinavian macro, FX and Fixed Income. Enjoy.

Riksbank takeaways

As expected, the bank delivered a copycat of the December decision, but there is food for thought...

SEK FI & FX strategy: Outlook revisited

Our outlook of an improving macro economic outlook is largely on track and data over recent weeks have improved and overall been exceeding market expectations. We expect more of the same in coming months and the re-bound to look more broad-based…