DCSIMG

Jan von Gerich

Jan von Gerich is the Global Fixed Income Strategist for Nordea, and has been an expert on government bonds from before the global financial crisis. His analyses start from the big picture, as understanding the wider context is essential in current times, and then proceed to more market-oriented views.

Some of the biggest investors in the world subscribe to his analyses.

Jan graduated from the Helsinki University of Technology with a Master of Science and has been with Nordea since 2004, working in the Helsinki, Copenhagen and Stockholm offices. Previous to Nordea he has worked in New York within the financial industry.


Week Ahead: 26 Jul - 01 Aug 2014

Big week in the US with GDP, Fed, ISM and payrolls. Flash estimates on July inflation will be out for the Euro Area and ECB will publish the Bank Lending Survey on Wednesday. In Norway the labour market will be in focus. Sweden will be out with both PMI and GDP Q2 (early estimate)

FI Eye-Opener: Reaching for the stars

German bonds take back earlier losses – yields to creep higher today. S&P 500 just manages to rise to new highs. China’s economy picks up steam. Bank of England not unanimous for too much longer? Russian sanctions on the agenda again. Euro-zone PMIs set to rebound.

BoE minutes: First hike getting closer, but not around the corner yet

BoE minutes showed a unanimous monetary policy decision at the July meeting, but the differing views about the outlook are starting to emerge. The modest wage pressures mean that the Bank is not in any hurry to start to raise rates, and the first rate hike is not around the corner. The August monetary policy meeting and the inflation report will be interesting.

FI Eye-Opener: Some easing in Euro-zone deflation threat

German yields rebound – US Treasuries end with a small rally. Core bond to remain supported today. Equities with clear gains. EU continues to advance with small steps with Russian sanctions. US inflation pressures remain limited for now. At least some easing in the Euro-zone deflation threat. New 30-year benchmark from the EFSF. BoE minutes and French business confidence ahead.

FI Eye-Opener: Searching for inflation

Core bond yields edge further down – geopolitical tensions continue to support bonds. Equity markets feeling pressure. More sanctions on Russia in the pipeline. US inflation pressures finally picking up? Belgium to sell longer bonds.

While you were busy...

If you are just back from holiday, here are a few bullets on what happened while you were busy…

FI Eye-Opener: Markets too upbeat on Europe?

Bond yields end a bit higher, but near-term upside still limited. US equities with a clear rebound – resistance in sight. Money market rates rise on higher LTRO repayments. More warnings on markets being too optimistic. US inflation numbers and Euro-zone PMIs ahead. Supply action easing – more coupon and redemption payments ahead.

Week Ahead: 19 - 25 July 2014

US CPI inflation will be out on Tuesday . China and the Euro-zone will present PMI figures. On Friday the German Ifo indexes is released. The BoE will deliver minutes from the July meeting and UK GDP figures will be out on Friday

Tämä kupla paisuu vielä

Kuplia siellä, kuplia täällä – keskuspankkien massiiviset elvytystoimet ovat nostaneet omaisuuslajien hintoja kautta linjan. Pitkien korkojen poikkeuksellisen matalasta tasosta huolimatta useat tekijät puhuvat vielä pitkien korkojen laskun puolesta. Alle prosentin taso Saksan 10-vuotisessakin korossa on helposti ihan kulman takana.

FI Eye-Opener: Increasing tensions to push German yields to new lows

Bonds continue to rally – yields in several semi-core countries hit record lows. Equities suffer a beating. Chinese home prices continue to fall. Geopolitical concerns take centre stage ahead of the weekend. German 10-year yield about to fall to new lows. Mixed US data – Bullard sees early rate hikes. No ABS purchases from the ECB for a long while. US consumer confidence and euro debate ahead.

Bonds: This bubble will keep growing

It seems everywhere you look nowadays, you see a bubble. That is not true of course, but based on many headlines, you could be fooled. The bond market is no exception, and it has received its fair share of bubble talk. If it is a bubble, it will keep growing in the near future.

FI Eye-Opener: Another round of sanctions

Bonds continue to see strong demand. Portuguese bonds rally hard. Core bonds to continue to perform today. European equities with considerable gains yesterday. Fresh sanctions on Russia taking a toll on already weak economies. EU leaders fail to agree on top posts. Final Euro-zone inflation and US construction data ahead. Spanish and French supply.

FI Eye-Opener: Finally some inflation somewhere

10-year core yields end the day with small changes – short US yields rise. Bonds to remain supported today. Intra-Euro-zone spreads narrow mostly. China’s remarkably stable growth accelerates a bit for a change. Fed surprised of the recent labour market performance. US consumers doing well again. Did you see this, Carney? US housing market, PPI and EU summit in focus. Germany to sell 10-year bonds.

UK: June inflation adds pressure on the Bank of England

CPI came in at 0.2% m/m in June pushing inflation up to 1.9% y/y, much higher than the consensus estimate of 1.6%. The higher numbers will intensify the speculation of whether the Bank of England could tighten policy already this year. We find such a move unlikely.

FI Eye-Opener: Dove hunting

Bond yields rebound, but trading volumes low. Portuguese bonds recover, as banking worries ease. Core bond yields to continue to head slightly higher today. Equities post broad gains. China’s credit growth accelerates. Yellen to try to sound dovish again.

While you were busy...

If you are just back from holiday, here are a few bullets on what happened while you were busy…

FI Eye-Opener: Perfect post-World Cup Monday

No big events this weekend and the big markets are roughly unchanged. Relief for Portugal on Friday. Post-World Cup Monday calendar with Euro-area industrial production and Draghi in the European Parliament. Focus on the Fed this week with Yellen's bi-annual testimony to Congress. Plenty of government bond supply again this week.