Yields edged higher yesterday – long positions with potential today. Equities rebound, but more weakness likely ahead. Euro-zone core inflation back to record-lows. Italy taps retail investors for huge amounts again. Big US banks boosting their lending to companies – Euro-zone doing much worse. Philly Fed, jobless claims and LTRO repayment announcement. New French 2-year benchmark and US auctions ahead.
Jan von Gerich
Jan von Gerich is the Global Fixed Income Strategist for Nordea, and has been an expert on government bonds from before the global financial crisis. His analyses start from the big picture, as understanding the wider context is essential in current times, and then proceed to more market-oriented views.
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Jan graduated from the Helsinki University of Technology with a Master of Science and has been with Nordea since 2004, working in the Helsinki, Copenhagen and Stockholm offices. Previous to Nordea he has worked in New York within the financial industry.
German 10-year yield finally broke important support – mood remains bullish. A correction higher in yields still looks likely today. US equities recover after early losses. Q1 effect hits Chinese GDP numbers again. Ukraine’s military starting to use force US core inflation bottomed out? Euro-zone inflation and US housing market data ahead – Germany to sell 10-year bonds.
Bond yields rebound, but bonds with more performance potential left. Intra-Euro-zone spreads narrow. Equities rise – more downside potential in the near term. US retail sales beat expectations. Eyes on US CPI and Yellen’s speech.
Bonds with more gains on Friday – German 10-year yield to break lower today. Finnish bonds feeling some pressure after a negative outlook by S&P. Correction lower in equities has further to run. ECB fights the stronger currency with words – and talks further about QE. LTRO payments continue coming in – ECB more concerned about the rising euro. US retail sales & inflation, Chinese GDP and corporate earnings ahead. New French 2-year benchmark out this week.
Euro zone QE talks all over the place, but there is still room for curve flattening and demand continues to be strong, also for Scandies. Find out what we favor in this month's edition of European FI Strategy.
The credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s surprisingly changed its outlook for the AAA rating of Finland from stable to negative, the first major rating agency to do so. The action puts more pressure on the already shaky government and will deliver a hit to Finnish bonds, very dependent on the highest ratings.
Bonds with a big rally yesterday – curves bull-flatten. German 10-year yield gathering momentum to break lower – a correction higher in yields still likely today. Finnish credit rating starting to feel pressure – more pressure for the shaky government. Huge demand for the new Greek benchmark. US consumer confidence and IMF Spring meetings ahead. Italian auctions concluding a busy supply week.
US bonds rally after Fed minutes – German yields climb. Fed minutes propel US equities higher. Rally in Greek bonds helped by the prospect of strong new issue. Stay long bonds today. Chinese trade data terrible. Fed minutes play down the higher interest rate forecasts. Bank of England and jobless claims in store. Finally time for Greece – US and Irish auctions also on the agenda.
While there is a lot of talk about QE these days, the hurdles to implementing it are still quite high, in our view. But what, if? Growing expectations of a QE programme should push yields further down, contribute to more intra-Euro-zone spread narrowing, and likely also push curves flatter. Note that our ECB base case remains: no move.
US bonds continue to perform – stay long today. US equities manage a small rebound. Fed minutes to clarify rate hikes not around the corner. Germany and the US to auction bonds – also Greece in the pipeline.
Long bond yields fall further – intra-Euro-zone spreads correct wider. Bonds with some more performance potential left today. Equities under clear pressure. ECB members playing down the prospects of quick QE. ECB and Bank of England to join forces to revive the ABS market. Light economic data – eyes on earnings, politics and central bank speeches. New German linker and plenty of other auctions.
Bonds with a big rally – more gains ahead. Intra-Euro-zone spreads narrow further – Italian 10-year yield at record-lows. US payrolls growth accelerates, as the weather effect fades. ECB QE talks intensify – expectations of further action rise. Finnish government facing increasing uncertainties. Calm data week – Fed minutes, Chinese data and corporate earnings on the agenda. Plenty of action on the auction front, including a new German linker.
Bond yields edge lower. Intra-Euro-zone spreads narrow. Bearish positions in bonds the way to go today – US 10-year yield to break higher. Limits of verbal easing near for the ECB. Payrolls poison for bonds?
Bonds continue to take a beating and curves bear-steepen. US-German 10-year spread hits multi-year highs. Bonds to continue to feel pressure in the days to come. US equities rise to new records. China ramps up stimulus. Last year’s Fed dissenter now expects rather quick rate hikes. ADP supporting the picture of a recovery in employment growth. Inaction to lead to some action. Spanish and French auctions ahead – more upward pressure on yields.
Bond yields rose yesterday and more of the same in store today. US equities reach new highs – profit taking ahead. Recovery in the US ISM index far from impressive. The return of Greece to the bond markets getting closer. US ADP numbers to offer guidance to payrolls. Germany to sell 5-year bonds – a new linker out next week.
German yields rose yesterday, while US bonds found support towards the evening. Yields set to rise today. US equities approaching record-highs again. China’s official PMI edges higher. Yellen reassures easy policy not going anywhere. Euro-zone inflation falling towards zero – does the ECB care? ISM index still struggling.