Erik Bruce
Erik Bruce follows the Norwegian economy closely, concentrating on the foreign exchange and interest rate markets. His role is to formulate and present Nordea's view on the domestic and international economy for domestic and international clients.
Prior to joining Nordea, Erik has worked for the Norwegian Ministry of Finance and the consultancy firm, ECON.
Norway: Mainland GDP rebounded – as expected
Norway: Rebound in mainland growth
Nordea WebTV uke 20: Viktige BNP-tall
Norway: Not that high inflation
May
Norway: Inflation strongly up – food prices
Needless to say the chance of a June cut fell strongly on today’s figure. However a rate hike is not agenda, remember Norges Bank rate forecast was biased to the downside. NOK will probably also strengthen on the reduced chances of a cut.
Norway: April inflation back on track
If we are right and core inflation is back on Norges Bank’s forecast the chance of a June cut will be reduced and we should see somewhat stronger NOK
Norges Bank: No rate change and no change in outlook
This was as we had expected and we see no reason to change our view of unchanged rates also in June.
Norway: More expansionary budget
It will be hard for Norges Bank to avoid the conclusion that fiscal policy is slightly more expansionary than expected. But the difference is too small to have any strong impact on rates going forward
Norges bank will not cut rates
• Weaker NOK counteract lower wage growth • Could say it considered a cut – but will probably not • Stronger NOK and higher forward rates if we are right. • Leakages from revised budget strengthen our belief in unchanged …
Nordea WebTV uke 19: Norges Bank rører ikke renten
Forrige uke var begivenhetsrik med både rentekutt fra ECB og gode arbeidsmarkedstall fra USA. Denne uken vender vi fokus mot norsk økonomi der det er rentemøte i Norges Bank. Sjefanalytiker Erik Bruce forteller deg alt om rentemøtet i Norges Bank i Nordea …
Norway: Registered unemployment slightly up
Unemployment figures in line with Norges Bank forecast.
April
Norway: Forget the signs of weakness
Lower retail sales than we had expected, but stronger labour market figures. What will be Norges Bank's conclusion?
Rate cut is NOKed out
Weak NOK makes a rate cut in May unlikely. But what about June?
Nordea WebTV: Fortsetter kronesvekkelsen?
Den norske krona har svekket seg betydelig den siste tiden og på kort sikt er det rom for ytterligere svekkelse. Sjefanalytiker Erik Brucegir deg årsaken til kronesvekkelsen og avslører hva vi tror om norske kroner fremover.
Nordea WebTV uke 16: Et steg nærmere rentekutt
Norges Bank har allerede indikert en viss sansynlighet for rentekutt på rentemøtet i mai. Med forrige ukes svake inflasjonstall samt et moderat lønnsoppgjør i vår er vi nå kommet et steg nærmere et rentekutt. Vi beholder allikevel vår prognose på uendret styringsrente fremover. Senioranalytiker Katrine Boye forklarer deg hvorfor i Nordea WebTV.
Norway: Inflation down – weakness all over
We have to think. Cut or not cut in May?
Norway: March inflation not a trigger, but perhaps wage growth
We forecast core inflation (CPI-ATE) at 1.2%, up from 1.1% last month. Consensus is 1.1% 0.1% points higher inflation than consensus will probably not provoke stronger NOK and higher forward rates.
Nordea web-TV uke 15: Gir lønnsoppgjøret lavere rente?
Årets første lønnsoppgjør er i havn og det ble nok litt mer moderat enn Norges Bank ventet. Sjeføkonom Steinar Juel diskuterer hva det kan bety for inflasjonen og rentesettingen fremover. I Japan har sentralbanken lagt om pengepolitikken i langt mer …
Norway: Unemployment has leveled out
Norges Bank mentioned the weaker than expected LFS figures at the last MPC meeting, but did not seem to give that much weight to it. We think that is still the view.
Nordea WebTV uke 14: Innholdsrik uke står for tur
Påsken ble preget av den nye Kypros-avtalen. Markedet reagerte umiddelbart positivt, men stemningen snudde raskt. Den nye løsningen innebærer at både obligasjonseiere og innskytere med store innskudd må ta tap. Denne uken er preget av flere store hendelser, der sysselsettingstallene "non-farm payrolls" og rentemøtet i ECB blir blant de viktigste.
March
Norway: Registered unemployment slightly up
The main picture is still that registered unemployment moves about sideways in line with Norges Banks forecast.
Navigatøren – Olsenbanden gjør nye funn
Større sjanse for kutt enn økning i år I sin nye renteprognose skjøv Norges Bank første renteøkning fra sommeren i år til sommeren neste år. De spår uendrede renter fram til da, men på kort sikt er det mer sannsynlig …
Nordea WebTV: Norges Bank er trengt opp i et hjørne
Norges Bank holdt som ventet styringsrenten uendret på 1,5 %. Mer overraskende var den kraftige nedjusteringen av den nye rentebanen. Rentebanen indikerer første renteøkning våren 2014, men allerede på førstkommende møte i mai er det en mulighet for et kutt. Også …
Norges Bank: No change, but a dovish report
More dovish than we expected and a kind of easing bias. We have to look more into the report, but so far we will keep our forecast for a first hike in March 2014. The risk of a cut/later hike has however increased.
Norges Bank on hold
If we are right, the main message will be that Norges Bank is on hold. That is in line with market pricing and nothing much will happen
Norway: Inflation down – but close to Norges Bank
We see the deviation to Norges Bank's forecast to small to have any significant impact on the upcoming new interest rate forecast from Norges Bank.
Norway: Core inflation slightly below Norges Bank – again
Core inflation has on average been 0.1% below Norges Bank’s forecast the three last months if we are right. That is probably not enough to have any influence on the coming interest rate forecast
Nordea WebTV uke 10: Draghi igjen i fokus
I forrige uke så vi at valget i Italia endte i en kaotisk situasjon, og at de automatiske budsjettkuttene i USA bli gjennomført. Allikevel var markedsreaksjonene små. Erik Bruce forteller deg hvorfor, og vurderer blant annet ukens rentemøte i ECB og fredagens "non-farm payrolls" i denne utgaven av Nordea WebTV.
Norway: Registered unemployment is not giving in
In total the LFS survey and weak GDP figures in Q4 point to a downward revision of the output gap. But that registered unemployment is stable at a low level argues that the revision will be rather moderate.
February
Norway: Higher unemployment – again
The LFS figures could be an indication that growth is slowing and capacity utilization stabilizing. The main argument for higher rates then weakens.
Nordea WebTV uke 8: Kan nøkkeltall peke mot bedring i eurosonen?
Forrige ukes BNP-tall for fjerde kvartal pekte mot en svak utvikling i den norske fastlandsøkonomien, og var godt på nedsiden av Norges Banks anslag. Samtidig bidro sentralbanksjef Olsens årstale til en svekkelse av krona. Vi fikk også svake BNP-tall fra eurosonen, men allerede denne uken …
Norway: GDP growth weak and well below Norges Bank
All in all today’s figures makes us more certain that Norges Bank will revise down its interest rate forecast in the coming March report. We still do not believe in a cut, but the uncertainty has clearly increased
Norway: Significant cool down in mainland growth
The Q4 2012 national accounts are due out on 13 February at 10.00 CET. We project mainland GDP growth at 0.2% q/q (2.7% y/y) in Q3 compared to 0.7% q/q (2.9%y/y) in Q3. The consensus estimate, according to Reuters, is …
Norway: Inflation up – close to Norges Bank
Strong NOK and the possibility of tighter monetary conditions due to regulations are the main reasons why we believe Norges Bank will postpone the first hike to early 2014.
Norway: Core inflation back on Norges Bank forecast in January
Consensus is yet not known, but we guess most analysts will predict core inflation at about 1.2% so nothing will happen in the market if we are right
Norway: Stable unemployment in contrast to the Labour force survey
We, and we believe Norges Bank, will give more weight to today’s figures than the LFS unemployment and conclude that unemployment is moving sideways at a rather low level
January
Norway: Higher unemployment – a surprise
The likelihood of a rate hike this year in the March Norges Bank interest rate forecast seems small
Nordea WebTV uke 5: Superuke står for tur
Flere nøkkeltall overrasket på oppsiden forrige uke, og det er et positivt sentiment i markedet. Denne uken er det flere spennende hendelser med blant annet rentemøte i Fed, amerikanske BNP-tall og “non-farm payrolls”. I tillegg kommer flere nøkkeltall fra Norge. Senioranalytiker …
Cheap labour – low inflation
Inflation will remain below target despite higher imported inflation and higher growth in rents
Billig arbeidskraft bidrar til lav prisstigning
Lav lønnsvekst i konsumorienterte sektorer kan holde inflasjonen lav
Financial forecasts – New Year is over, but the party is not
We have only made minor changes to the financial forecasts this time: We have lifted our mid-year target for the EUR/USD to 1.25, made minor changes to the GBP forecast, lowered our 3M EUR/SEK forecast to 8.60 and we have postponed the first hike from Norges Bank to March 2014 and only expect two hikes in 2014.
A change in view – no hike in 2013
We have changed our forecast for key rates in Norway. We no longer forecast a hike in October 2013, but have postponed the first hike to March 2014.
Norway: Inflation on the downside
Inflation on the downside adds to the picture of key figures being somewhat on the weak side lately.
Norway: Core inflation slightly on the downside in December
Core 0.1% points below consensus and Norges Bank will have no effect on the market.
Norway: Somewhat higher unemployment
Despit higher than forecasted unemployment today's figure did not change our view.
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LOL. Homing from work
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Do they still teach “money multiplier” at school? ECB vs Fed http://t.co/tRkb6sAEFT
