DCSIMG

Aurelija Augulyte

Passionate financial Markets follower and psychologist - is what best describes Aurelija Augulyte. She is a dedicated macro strategist, engaged in tying the economic reality with the market trends, tracking sentiment, drivers and ultimately forming Nordea's short term views. Aurelija’s focus is FX markets, but her strength is ability to find signals across the asset classes, which a broad product knowledge helps to utilize. A native of Lithuania, Aurelija speaks Russian, Polish, English, Danish, some German, and understands the different cultures, which gives her an edge in the cross-region analysis.

Aurelija is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a certified dealer (ACI). She holds a bachelor degree in economics from Vilnius University and a master's degree in Applied Economics and Finance from Copenhagen Business School. Aurelija has been with Nordea since 2007.

Nordea Financial Forecasts

New financial forecasts

Published date: 21 May 2013
With Fed appearing somewhat more inclined towards QE-tapering than previously signaled, we bring down our 3 month EURUSD forecast to 1.32. We also adjust our Brent Q2 forecast down to USD 105/bbl.
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FX Comment: V for Volatility

Published date: 19 May 2013
EUR gave up to the rallying USD...but this week's PMIs are a chance. Bernanke will deliver the final verdict for USD. Long GBPUSD, upside risks to AUDUSD and downside to USDJPY.
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FX Comment: another false start?

Published date: 12 May 2013
QE-exit fears lifted the USD yet again. Are we putting the cart ahead of the horse here? Soft US data
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FX Comment: follow down?

Published date: 5 May 2013
A lean data week ahead. With soft FOMC and ECB messages last week, will other central banks follow suit?

May

New financial forecasts

Published date: 21 May 2013 | Analysts: Aurelija Augulyte, Henrik Unell, Rickard Hellman, Anders Svendsen, Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Fredrik Paulsson

With Fed appearing somewhat more inclined towards QE-tapering than previously signaled, we bring down our 3 month EURUSD forecast to 1.32. We also adjust our Brent Q2 forecast down to USD 105/bbl.

FX Comment: V for Volatility

Published date: 19 May 2013 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

EUR gave up to the rallying USD...but this week's PMIs are a chance. Bernanke will deliver the final verdict for USD. Long GBPUSD, upside risks to AUDUSD and downside to USDJPY.

FX Comment: another false start?

Published date: 12 May 2013 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

QE-exit fears lifted the USD yet again. Are we putting the cart ahead of the horse here? Soft US data

FX Comment: follow down?

Published date: 5 May 2013 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

A lean data week ahead. With soft FOMC and ECB messages last week, will other central banks follow suit?

April

FX Comment: oops…a soft patch?

Published date: 29 Apr 2013 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

A central ban week, full of important data from the US side. The latter showing weakness should keep USD under pressure.

FX Comment: in Europe we trust

Published date: 22 Apr 2013 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

Growth trumps everything. European PMIs this week is a "fingers crossed". More upside for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY.

New financial forecasts

Published date: 15 Apr 2013 | Analysts: Anders Svendsen, Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Jan von Gerich, Christian Börjesson, Aurelija Augulyte, Henrik Unell, Rickard Hellman, Bjørnar Tonhaugen

We have made a number of adjustments to our financial forecasts including US rates, EUR/USD, GBP, CHF, JPY and base metals. The big story is unchanged!

FX Comment: last man standing?

Published date: 8 Apr 2013 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

The weak US data revived the hopes of QE continuation, putting pressue on the USD. IMF gives green light to IMF weakening - chase the carry where it's still left!

NEMO: more bumps in the road

Published date: 4 Apr 2013 | Analysts: Jan von Gerich, Aurelija Augulyte, Jakob Skinhøj, Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Christian Börjesson, Torbjörn Isaksson, Mats Hydén, Henrik Unell, Katrine Boye, Gaute Langeland, Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen, Jan Størup Nielsen

Risk appetite in general has been surprisingly resilient to adverse events in the past few months.

BoJ: Sayonara deflation

Published date: 4 Apr 2013 | Analysts: Amy Yuan Zhuang, Aurelija Augulyte, Fredrik Paulsson

Bank of Japan’s new governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, was not afraid of introducing bold monetary policy measures at his first policy meeting.

FX Comment: it’s the economy, stupid

Published date: 2 Apr 2013 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

A new quarter starts with broad USD weakness. EUR is a special case...so far.

March

New financial forecasts

Published date: 19 Mar 2013 | Analysts: Anders Svendsen, Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rickard Hellman, Henrik Unell, Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Jan von Gerich, Aurelija Augulyte, Torbjörn Isaksson, Andreas Jonsson, Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen

Here are the usual financial forecast slides with our new financial forecasts published this this morning in Economic Outlook. We have changed our forecast for the Fed, the BoE, the SNB, Riksbanken, Euro rates, USD rates, EUR/USD, JPY, GBP, SEK, NOK, oil and the base metals.

Initial thoughts on the Cyprus deal

Published date: 18 Mar 2013 | Analysts: Anders Svendsen, Jan von Gerich, Aurelija Augulyte

A EUR 10bn bailout for Cyprus was agreed on Saturday. Today, the Cypriot parliament will have to pass the most controversial part of the bailout. In our view, the bailout does not change the overall picture for the Euro area here and now even if the final bailout terms include a haircut on deposits that was supposed to be insured. However, the current deal clearly increases the longer-term risks for the Euro area.

FX Comment: Oops they did it again

Published date: 18 Mar 2013 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

Cyprus - be cautious, but don't panic. It's not the first "surprise" from the EMU leadership, and probably not the last.

FX Comment: The new (old) normal?

Published date: 11 Mar 2013 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

History rhymes, but doesn't repeat. Is USD king again? Not so fast.

EM FX Monocle – Divergent paths

Published date: 6 Mar 2013 | Analysts: Amy Yuan Zhuang, Aurelija Augulyte

For the first time the EM FX Monocle includes all the CEE and Asians economies that Nordea covers. The headlines for March are: CNY: In line with our expectation, the Chinese yuan has been volatile in the past three months. In general, …

FX Comment: say no more, Draghi

Published date: 4 Mar 2013 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

The central bank week (11), expect a lot of talk, no changes. The GBP downside may be done for now, if risk sentiment improves. If not, commodity currencies, especially CAD, will come under pressure...

February

Italian politics in a dead end – any way out?

Published date: 26 Feb 2013 | Analysts: Holger Sandte, Anders Svendsen, Aurelija Augulyte, Christian Börjesson, Steen Grøndahl

The one thing that seems clear after the Italian election is that nothing is clear at all and uncertainty will linger on. As Bersani put it: Italy is in "a very delicate situation."

FX Comment: And the loser is…

Published date: 25 Feb 2013 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

Where things almost couldn't get worse, it did for GBP. Only "risk on" striking back and dovish Bernanke can save the day.

NEMO: Punch bowl not going anywhere yet

Published date: 20 Feb 2013 | Analysts: Jan von Gerich, Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Holger Sandte, Aurelija Augulyte, Torbjörn Isaksson, Mats Hydén, Henrik Unell, Katrine Boye, Gaute Langeland, Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen, Jan Størup Nielsen

Risk sentiment has continued to mostly thrive lately. Improving economic data and continued easy monetary policy should still to provide support, but an increasing amount of event risk and uncertainty in the near future should lead to temporary profit taking and a correction lower in equity prices.

FX Comment: Eyes wide shut

Published date: 18 Feb 2013 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

Big chance for EURUSD to rebound above 1.3300 as the European numbers confirm EMU recovery this week...

Financial forecasts – More upside for EUR/USD and yields in the near term

Published date: 11 Feb 2013 | Analysts: Anders Svendsen, Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Aurelija Augulyte, Holger Sandte, Jan von Gerich, Henrik Unell, Rickard Hellman, Bjørnar Tonhaugen

This is a regular monthly update of our financial forecasts. See the summary below or the full report via the link. Markets have settled a bit since our 29 Jan update (Markets getting too far ahead of economies). Still, we …

FX Comment: G20 – From Russia, Without Love

Published date: 11 Feb 2013 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

Lots of talk this week, less data and Asian holiday with Brazilian Carnival...room for a pause?

FX Comment: going for more

Published date: 4 Feb 2013 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

ECB's Draghi is on staget this week, and the chances are he is not going to verbally talk the EUR down... just yet.

Ny valutaprognose: Markederne for langt foran økonomierne

Published date: 1 Feb 2013 | Analysts: Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Anders Svendsen, Aurelija Augulyte, Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Jan von Gerich

De finansielle markeder vil være præget af risikovillighed i den nærmeste fremtid. Men som følge af manglen på fundamentale forbedringer venter vi en korrektion i løbet af foråret.

January

Markets getting too far ahead of economies

Published date: 29 Jan 2013 | Analysts: Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Anders Svendsen, Aurelija Augulyte, Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Jan von Gerich

Risk-on is likely to dominate in the very near-term but given the lack of fundamental improvements we expect to see a correction sometime during the spring.

FX Comment: White Flags in the Currency War

Published date: 21 Jan 2013 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

Moderation is virtue. Even when you are in the currency war.

Financial forecasts – New Year is over, but the party is not

Published date: 14 Jan 2013 | Analysts: Anders Svendsen, Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Jan von Gerich, Aurelija Augulyte, Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Erik Bruce, Henrik Unell, Rickard Hellman

We have only made minor changes to the financial forecasts this time: We have lifted our mid-year target for the EUR/USD to 1.25, made minor changes to the GBP forecast, lowered our 3M EUR/SEK forecast to 8.60 and we have postponed the first hike from Norges Bank to March 2014 and only expect two hikes in 2014.

FX Comment: ECB from Mars, Fed from Venus

Published date: 14 Jan 2013 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

Fed talk is one of this week's highlights - will they get the USD sink more?...

FX Comment: staying positive

Published date: 7 Jan 2013 | Analyst: Aurelija Augulyte

ECB will not break the zero bound, and US may disappoint near term, with no end to QE - renewing pressure for USD.