Aurelija Augulyte

Passionate financial Markets follower and psychologist - is what best describes Aurelija Augulyte. She is a dedicated macro strategist, engaged in tying the economic reality with the market trends, tracking sentiment, drivers and ultimately forming Nordea's short term views. Aurelija’s focus is FX markets, but her strength is ability to find signals across the asset classes, which a broad product knowledge helps to utilize. A native of Lithuania, Aurelija speaks Russian, Polish, English, Danish, some German, and understands the different cultures, which gives her an edge in the cross-region analysis.

Aurelija is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a certified dealer (ACI). She holds a bachelor degree in economics from Vilnius University and a master's degree in Applied Economics and Finance from Copenhagen Business School. Aurelija has been with Nordea since 2007.

US: Core consumer prices rise less than expected

The overall trend of inflation remained subdued in June

While you were busy...

If you are just back from holiday, here are a few bullets on what happened while you were busy…

FX: cautiously realistic

The USD hovering at a major 1.5y support - break here should bring major new lows; European bad IP data, out this week, already "in the price". Good luck fighting Draghi.

FX: can't touch this

Payrolls not to prevent USD from weakening further, as wages stuck at 2% y/y. Scandies gone too much, too far - inflation on agenda this week.

Scottish independence from the UK: What if?

In the event of Scottish independence there will only be limited impact on the UK economy, but risks of a debt/GDP ratio above 100% and current account deficit above 7% of GDP. Probably interest rates will be higher in Scotland than in the UK, but credit premia in the UK would widen by 20-50bps. The worst case could translate into up to 10% weaker GBP.

FX: let's get real!

What if the euro zone inflation comes lower this week? Will EURUSD take another hit? Let's think...

Global FX Strategy - Summer dull

The recent rate cut from the ECB pushed the EUR/USD down. Furthermore, has a dovish Yellen paused the Fed funds repricing which altogether leaves the EUR/USD in a range with upward bias for the summer! Alongside that we have updated stories on JPY, FX vol, EM FX, NOK and SEK in this edition of Global FX Strategy. Enjoy!

New Financial Forecasts

This is the last financial forecast update before summer. The next scheduled update is 18 August.

CHF: gravity pulls

The Swiss National Bank keeps the status quo, blessing a weaker CHF. We do see higher EURCHF at the end of 2014 and on...but the USDCHF will likely come down in the near term on broad USD weakness post FOMC, putting pressure on EURCHF too.

Trades '14: keepers and droppers

The H1 of 2014 has delivered surprisingly low volatility, lower than expected global rates and a comeback of the EM carry. Will H2 be what H1 was not? Which trades, recommended in January this year, are still attractive for the H2?

FX: party on

ECB won't kill EUR, as capital flow to resume. The USD staged a sharp reversal down last week, and wage growth stuck at 2% suggests - no Fed funds repricing imminent yet, but...

ECB: Still a lot to look forward to

Taking another looks at the ECB’s message, we find potential in the new refinancing operations, but they will pale in comparisons with the 3-year LTROs, at least in size. The ABS programme in the pipeline will help as well, but will have an even longer lag. We see a faster rebound in inflation compared to the ECB, while we continue to look for higher core yields, tighter spreads and only a temporary rebound in the EUR/USD.

ECB: "We are not finished"

ECB delivered a whole package of measures just as we expected. As a result, longer core yields initially rose, the curve steepened and the euro depreciated. We see more upside potential for long yields, but expect EUR/USD to rebound soon. As it will take a long time to see the effect of the measures announced today, the ECB will be very reluctant to jump into any QE programme any time soon, but the ABS programme will be added to the stimulus package later.

ECB preview: Even a package deal not enough to sustain a bond rally

There can be little doubt the ECB will provide a whole package of easing measures in its meeting on Thursday, including rate cuts, liquidity measures and a conditional LTRO. Even a whole package of measures is unlikely to be enough to sustain a core bond rally, and longer yields are set to see a rebound higher, while the curve will steepen.

FX: price matters

Inflation is this week's theme: May HICP and ECB's revisions are key for EUR. The Market is sceptical about higher Fed funds rate projections, but a pickup in wage growth would cause repricing...

FX: final call, EURUSD

The EURUSD tapped the 200D MA, but still needs to confirm on higher volume. The USD uptrend has begun? Not if USDCHF stalls here.

European elections – EU/euro-sceptics moving forward

We shed a light on the elections to the European Parliament that start today in the UK and the Netherlands. Results will be known late Sunday evening. EU- or euro-sceptic parties are set to perform strongly. Markets are well aware, but still it could create volatility.