Passionate financial Markets follower and psychologist - is what best describes Aurelija Augulyte. She is a dedicated macro strategist, engaged in tying the economic reality with the market trends, tracking sentiment, drivers and ultimately forming Nordea's short term views. Aurelija’s focus is FX markets, but her strength is ability to find signals across the asset classes, which a broad product knowledge helps to utilize. A native of Lithuania, Aurelija speaks Russian, Polish, English, Danish, some German, and understands the different cultures, which gives her an edge in the cross-region analysis.
Aurelija is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a certified dealer (ACI). She holds a bachelor degree in economics from Vilnius University and a master's degree in Applied Economics and Finance from Copenhagen Business School. Aurelija has been with Nordea since 2007.
With Fed appearing somewhat more inclined towards QE-tapering than previously signaled, we bring down our 3 month EURUSD forecast to 1.32. We also adjust our Brent Q2 forecast down to USD 105/bbl.
EUR gave up to the rallying USD...but this week's PMIs are a chance. Bernanke will deliver the final verdict for USD. Long GBPUSD, upside risks to AUDUSD and downside to USDJPY.
QE-exit fears lifted the USD yet again. Are we putting the cart ahead of the horse here? Soft US data
A central ban week, full of important data from the US side. The latter showing weakness should keep USD under pressure.
Growth trumps everything. European PMIs this week is a "fingers crossed". More upside for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY.
We have made a number of adjustments to our financial forecasts including US rates, EUR/USD, GBP, CHF, JPY and base metals. The big story is unchanged!
The weak US data revived the hopes of QE continuation, putting pressue on the USD. IMF gives green light to IMF weakening - chase the carry where it's still left!
Risk appetite in general has been surprisingly resilient to adverse events in the past few months.
Bank of Japan’s new governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, was not afraid of introducing bold monetary policy measures at his first policy meeting.
A new quarter starts with broad USD weakness. EUR is a special case...so far.
Here are the usual financial forecast slides with our new financial forecasts published this this morning in Economic Outlook. We have changed our forecast for the Fed, the BoE, the SNB, Riksbanken, Euro rates, USD rates, EUR/USD, JPY, GBP, SEK, NOK, oil and the base metals.
A EUR 10bn bailout for Cyprus was agreed on Saturday. Today, the Cypriot parliament will have to pass the most controversial part of the bailout. In our view, the bailout does not change the overall picture for the Euro area here and now even if the final bailout terms include a haircut on deposits that was supposed to be insured. However, the current deal clearly increases the longer-term risks for the Euro area.
Cyprus - be cautious, but don't panic. It's not the first "surprise" from the EMU leadership, and probably not the last.
History rhymes, but doesn't repeat. Is USD king again? Not so fast.
For the first time the EM FX Monocle includes all the CEE and Asians economies that Nordea covers. The headlines for March are: CNY: In line with our expectation, the Chinese yuan has been volatile in the past three months. In general, …
The central bank week (11), expect a lot of talk, no changes. The GBP downside may be done for now, if risk sentiment improves. If not, commodity currencies, especially CAD, will come under pressure...
The one thing that seems clear after the Italian election is that nothing is clear at all and uncertainty will linger on. As Bersani put it: Italy is in "a very delicate situation."
Where things almost couldn't get worse, it did for GBP. Only "risk on" striking back and dovish Bernanke can save the day.
Risk sentiment has continued to mostly thrive lately. Improving economic data and continued easy monetary policy should still to provide support, but an increasing amount of event risk and uncertainty in the near future should lead to temporary profit taking and a correction lower in equity prices.
Big chance for EURUSD to rebound above 1.3300 as the European numbers confirm EMU recovery this week...
This is a regular monthly update of our financial forecasts. See the summary below or the full report via the link. Markets have settled a bit since our 29 Jan update (Markets getting too far ahead of economies). Still, we …
Lots of talk this week, less data and Asian holiday with Brazilian Carnival...room for a pause?
ECB's Draghi is on staget this week, and the chances are he is not going to verbally talk the EUR down... just yet.
De finansielle markeder vil være præget af risikovillighed i den nærmeste fremtid. Men som følge af manglen på fundamentale forbedringer venter vi en korrektion i løbet af foråret.
Risk-on is likely to dominate in the very near-term but given the lack of fundamental improvements we expect to see a correction sometime during the spring.
Moderation is virtue. Even when you are in the currency war.
We have only made minor changes to the financial forecasts this time: We have lifted our mid-year target for the EUR/USD to 1.25, made minor changes to the GBP forecast, lowered our 3M EUR/SEK forecast to 8.60 and we have postponed the first hike from Norges Bank to March 2014 and only expect two hikes in 2014.
Fed talk is one of this week's highlights - will they get the USD sink more?...
ECB will not break the zero bound, and US may disappoint near term, with no end to QE - renewing pressure for USD.