The market sentiment likely to stay positive, not in the USD favor. EURUSD may be copying previous months' development around ECB meeting.
Passionate financial Markets follower and psychologist - is what best describes Aurelija Augulyte. She is a dedicated macro strategist, engaged in tying the economic reality with the market trends, tracking sentiment, drivers and ultimately forming Nordea's short term views. Aurelija’s focus is FX markets, but her strength is ability to find signals across the asset classes, which a broad product knowledge helps to utilize. A native of Lithuania, Aurelija speaks Russian, Polish, English, Danish, some German, and understands the different cultures, which gives her an edge in the cross-region analysis.
Aurelija is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a certified dealer (ACI). She holds a bachelor degree in economics from Vilnius University and a master's degree in Applied Economics and Finance from Copenhagen Business School. Aurelija has been with Nordea since 2007.
12 March we released a new Economic Outlook with updated real-economic forecasts for 2014 and 2015. We also updated our longer-term financial forecasts for central banks, rates, FX and commodities. We have made no changes since then, but this slide set is intended to give a quick overview of our main financial forecasts.
The spike in USD last week will likely be corrected. European rates follow US rates - concern for ECB? Only with a sizeable drop in PMIs...
Will the EURUSD fall, when Fed eventually starts its hiking regime? Not necessarily. Find our thougths on that, as well as updated stories on GBP, CHF, SEK and NOK in this edition of our monthly Global FX Strategy.
The Crimean referendum delivered the expected result: A Yes to join Russia. Financial markets had already prepared themselves for this outcome during last week. Nervousness will remain in financial markets, and depending on political developments more safe-haven flows could materialise near term.
Talking the talk is not sufficient to stop EUR. USD broad weakness vs majors should continue for now.
Has USD bottomed? Will higher growth mean stronger USD? Will Fed fund hikes mean stronger USD? If so, against what? History gives some lessons...you may be surprised
With ECB rather relaxed about EUR, the US payrolls so-so, the only hope for USD now is if bad news from China escalate...
The ECB kept rates on hold as 40 out of 56 polled by Bloomberg – including us – expected. The ECB also decided to continue sterilising its sovereign bond holdings under the SMP. Rates rising and the EUR/USD reach 2014-highs.
"The less you know, the better you sleep" — Russian proverb
The Chinese Renminbi has experienced its biggest weekly slide against the USD in many years…and it continues. Further weakening is likely. Seasonally weaker Chinese data in late spring could provide further motivation for the government to weaken the CNY via the policy mix. Expect more volatility as the CNY band is to be widened to (+/-) 1½-2% after China’s National People’s Congress on March 5th.
We have updated our financial forecasts
“When the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches the cold.”
Our flagship FX publication is back. In here you will find everything you need on our views on the global currency markets. How will the USD cope with the current run of poor US data? Find our thoughts here. Enjoy!
The Bank of Japan has kept the quantitative easing (QE) program unchanged, at the annual pace of JPY 60-70 trillion, as we and the consensus has expected today.
The risk sentiment is secure on the hope that bad news is due to weather effects. The USD got broadly hit every day over the past week...will it strike back?