Annika Lindblad
Annika Lindblad is based in Nordea Markets' Helsinki office and is responsible for the analysis, forecasting and commenting on the Baltic economies. She also works closely with her Nordic colleagues to provide Finnish customers with the latest information on Emerging Markets and has a special interest in Eastern European economies, particularly Russia which she follows closely.
Annika graduated from the University of Helsinki with a Master in Political Science (Economics) and has been with Nordea since 2008.
The fight against TRY strengthening continues
Öljyyn nojautuminen riskialtis strategia
Little new under the Czech sun
Hungary tilted towards further rate cuts
May
April
China: Q2 opens on a weak note
The preliminary HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI for China was a disappointment, falling from 51.6 to 50.5 in April. This does not change our expectations of a gradually recovering Chinese economy, but is a sign of China adapting to a lower growth environment.
Turkish central bank: Avoiding a stronger lira
The Turkish central bank surprised with a 50bp interest rate cut (consensus -25bp). The interest rate action today is a clear sign that the central bank continues to prefer a weaker/stable TRY at the moment, and is more worried about modest growth than accelerating inflation.
Chinese growth disappoints in Q1
China’s sluggish Q1 GDP growth weakens expectations that the global recovery had gained strength at the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, credit growth picked up steam in March, which raises expectations of accelerating growth in Q2.
Rivakkaa luottokasvua Kiinassa
Vahva luottokasvu tukee odotuksia piristyvästä talouden aktiviteetista Kiinassa ja on linjassa reilun 8 prosentin kasvuennusteemme kanssa.
Turkish GDP falls short of expectations
Domestic demand was the main drag on growth last year. Q4 is, however, luckily already history, and looking forward the Turkish economy seems in a better position. S&P raised the country's credit rating last week, but kept it below investment grade. A widening CA deficit is the largest risk for further ratings upgrades.
March
Czech central bank retains easing bias
The Czech central bank kept the key rate unchanged at 0.05%, as expected. The already weak CZK limits the need for looser monetary policy at the moment. Nevertheless, governor Singer reiterated that the central bank is ready to loosen monetary policy through FX interventions.
Hungary – uncertainty remains high
No surprises here – Hungary cut its base rate for the eighth consecutive time by 25bp, bringing it down to a record-low 5.00%. Further interest rate cuts are possible, but they depend on inflation pressure and financial market uncertainty. No signs of unconventional monetary policy measures, which should help to firm HUF.
Turkey – flexible monetary policy continues
CBRT kept the benchmark one-week repo rate and the overnight borrowing rate unchanged. However, they decided to cut the O/N lending rate to 7.50% (from 8.50%). This is a fine-tuning move to monetary policy, and we rather see scope for tighter policy going forward.
Unkari – koronlaskusarja jatkuu, HUF:in heikkenemisvara käytetty
Spekulaatiot rahapolitiikan radikaalista keventämisestä käyvät kuumina Unkarissa. Odotamme tiistain kokouksesta koronlaskua, mutta päähuomio on uuden puheenjohtajan kommenteissa epätavanomaisita kevennyskeinoista. Pysyvään HUF:in heikkenemiseen ei ole varaa.
Kohti kiinalaista unelmaa
Kiinan kerran-kymmenessä-vuodessa vallanvaihdos on valmis. Vallanvaihdos ei kuitenkaan mullista maan politiikkaa, ja seuraavana vuosikymmenenä Kiinassa on edessä paljon haasteita ja tavoitteita.
Exciting times for monetary policy in Hungary
The parliament expectedly nominated economy minister Matolcsy as central bank chief. The appointment increases the likelihood of unconventional monetary policy measures, although these are unlikely in the short term. With all the negative sentiment surrounding Hungary, don't forget the possibility of a positive surprise from a recovering Germany!
Palvelusektori kohta ykkönen Kiinassakin
Kiinassahan teollisuus on talouden selvästi tärkein sektori ja palvelut vain pieni osa, eikö vain? Ei enää. Palvelusektori on Kiinassa lähitulevaisuudessa ajamassa tärkeydessä teollisuussektorin ohi.
Latvia: On track to adopt the euro in 2014
The government of Latvia today submitted a request to the European Commission and the European Central Bank to evaluate the eligibility of Latvia to become a member of the euro area. This is another formal step on the road to …
February
Monetary easing continues in Hungary
No surprises here – Hungary cut its base rate for the seventh consecutive time by 25bp, bringing it down to 5.25%. The monetary policy stance is likely to remain loose in the coming months as well, especially as the current central bank governor steps down after this meeting. On top of rate cuts, unconventional monetary policy easing would not be a suprise.
Hungary: Central bank turning completely dovish?
One of the main events in Hungary this spring is the stepping down of current central bank chief Simor in early March. The next central bank chief will be someone who plays well with PM Orbán. The main risk is that the central bank will be ready to give up some of the focus on the inflation target in favour of boosting growth, thus undermining long-term credibility of the central bank.
Hungary-IMF negotiations have reached the end of the road
It has become increasingly clear that there will be no new arrangement between Hungary and the IMF/EU. The encouraging market sentiment is helping Hungary meet its external financing needs without IMF support. However, an IMF package can be much more valuable than the cash itself through the discipline and accountability it introduces to economic policies.
Turkey takes steps to restrict credit growth and limit TRY gains
The central bank action is aimed at limiting speculative capital inflows and restricting credit growth. The reserve requirement hikes will drain liquidity from the markets, while the rate cuts should dampen capital inflows and thus help limit TRY gains.
Struggling Hungary – rate cuts will continue
Dismal. The only word that properly describes Hungary’s GDP data today. Today’s weak GDP data and lower than expected inflation cements expectations of further rate cuts. Risks are certainly mounting for further easing beyond 5.25%.
Czech contraction continues
The Czech economy continued on a dismal path, with GDP contracting 1.7% y/y in Q4. We expect the Czech economy only to pick up pace towards the end of the year, along with strengthening activity in the euro area.
Eikö heikko valuutta kelpaa?
Kun talous supistuu, inflaatio on maltillista ja markkinoilla odotetaan kyyhkymäistä sanomaa, niin mitä keskuspankki tekee? Ilmoittaa, ettei kevyempää rahapolitiikkaa juuri nyt tarvitakaan? Juuri näin, jos on Tšekin keskuspankin puheenjohtaja Singeriä uskominen.
Latvia: Primary dealer system being established
The Latvian State Treasury is implementing a primary dealer system in order to develop the government debt market and increase market activity.
Czech central bank plays down FX intervention risk in the near-term
The Czech central bank kept its repo rate unchanged at 0.05%, as expected. However, the central bank chief noted that the need for monetary policy easing is less urgent now than before (because of the recent CZK weakening), while keeping the door open for FX interventions later during the year.
January
Hungarian central bank cuts key rate
The Hungarian central bank cut its key rate by 25bp to 5.50%. We are pencilling in one more rate cut over the near term, but the weakness of the HUF and the still elevated inflation rate will remain decisive factors for further monetary easing.
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@banuta padomju laikos ta sauca ieslodzito/izsutito parvesanu uz kadu galamerki, piem. Sibirija, ar “starppieturam” citos cietumos pa celam
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RT @cullenroche: Some Perspective on the “Can’t Lose” Market http://t.co/Dp4VS3qKFe
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@finansakrobat Spent the whole night thinking. Solution not found.
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You can handle the high taxes, but not ‘Only teardrops’ on the radio from now on #Denmark #tippingpoint
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@simonhinrichsen Absolutely. Will be my pleasure!
