DCSIMG

Anders Svendsen

Anders Svendsen is a Chief Analyst with Nordea, covering the Euro area economy. He has over 10 years of experience in global financial markets, mainly covering economies and currencies in the burgeoning emerging markets arena.

Anders is currently very focussed on the debt crisis in the Euro area and its implications from an economic point of view as well as analysing the consequences for FX and fixed income markets.

CHF: Floored but no one’s counting

CHF: Floored but no one’s counting

Published date: 23 May 2013
We forecast EURCHF at 1.25 by year-end and at mid-2014, and 1.30 at end-2014 Recent CHF weakness reflects the general risk-on environment while also speculations about additional easing measures being imposed by the SNB It remains to be seen if equity markets stabilizes over…
Nordea Financial Forecasts

New financial forecasts

Published date: 21 May 2013
With Fed appearing somewhat more inclined towards QE-tapering than previously signaled, we bring down our 3 month EURUSD forecast to 1.32. We also adjust our Brent Q2 forecast down to USD 105/bbl.
Nordea Financial Forecasts

New forecasts for ECB, market rates and the EUR/USD

Published date: 8 May 2013
We now expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged at the current level until the beginning of 2015. Risks are clearly skewed towards another rate cut in the near term. Speculation in a deposit rate cut could take market rates to new lows in the near term and we have revised the market rates forecasts lower on all horizons. Lower EUR rates have implications for the EUR/USD forecast in the longer run, and we have decided to lower the end-2014.
Mario Draghi

ECB cuts rates and has an open mind

Published date: 2 May 2013
The ECB cut its refi rate by 25 bp to 0.5% as most expected. With the interest rate cuts the ECB do seem to be delivering something when not being able to deliver what it actually wants to, ie support to SMEs. Still, Draghi also seems more open than previously to further easing steps even after today’s decision to cut interest rates, which will support risk appetite in financial markets.

May

CHF: Floored but no one’s counting

Published date: 23 May 2013 | Analysts: Fredrik Paulsson, Anders Svendsen

We forecast EURCHF at 1.25 by year-end and at mid-2014, and 1.30 at end-2014 Recent CHF weakness reflects the general risk-on environment while also speculations about additional easing measures being imposed by the SNB It remains to be seen if …

New financial forecasts

Published date: 21 May 2013 | Analysts: Aurelija Augulyte, Henrik Unell, Rickard Hellman, Anders Svendsen, Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Fredrik Paulsson

With Fed appearing somewhat more inclined towards QE-tapering than previously signaled, we bring down our 3 month EURUSD forecast to 1.32. We also adjust our Brent Q2 forecast down to USD 105/bbl.

New forecasts for ECB, market rates and the EUR/USD

Published date: 8 May 2013 | Analysts: Anders Svendsen, Holger Sandte, Jan von Gerich

We now expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged at the current level until the beginning of 2015. Risks are clearly skewed towards another rate cut in the near term. Speculation in a deposit rate cut could take market rates to new lows in the near term and we have revised the market rates forecasts lower on all horizons. Lower EUR rates have implications for the EUR/USD forecast in the longer run, and we have decided to lower the end-2014.

ECB cuts rates and has an open mind

Published date: 2 May 2013 | Analyst: Anders Svendsen

The ECB cut its refi rate by 25 bp to 0.5% as most expected. With the interest rate cuts the ECB do seem to be delivering something when not being able to deliver what it actually wants to, ie support to SMEs. Still, Draghi also seems more open than previously to further easing steps even after today’s decision to cut interest rates, which will support risk appetite in financial markets.

Low Euro-area inflation – good news or bad?

Published date: 1 May 2013 | Analyst: Anders Svendsen

The Euro-area flash estimate for inflation in April fell to 1.2%! This follows a reading of 1.7% in March and we have looked a bit deeper into a few questions: Temporary or permanent? Good news or bad? ECB reaction or not?

April

ECB preview: No rate cut

Published date: 29 Apr 2013 | Analysts: Anders Svendsen, Jan von Gerich

Markets have once again started pricing in some risk of a rate cut and a majority of analysts now expect a refi rate cut from the ECB already at the meeting this week. We stick to our call and find it most likely that the ECB will keep rates on hold and instead come up with new measures to support bank lending to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs).

Today’s PMIs will not prompt an ECB rate cut

Published date: 23 Apr 2013 | Analyst: Anders Svendsen

We believe the ECB sees additional interest rate cuts beyond the current level as more or less ineffective. That is the reason, in our view, that interest rates were not cut already in December. However, key figures have surprised to the downside and we believe the ECB will have to act if the bank believes the economic outlook has weakened further or if it is unable to come up with an SME “support package” even if it believes the effect will be limited. An unchanged PMI reading today does not make a big difference in our opinion.

New financial forecasts

Published date: 15 Apr 2013 | Analysts: Anders Svendsen, Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Jan von Gerich, Christian Börjesson, Aurelija Augulyte, Henrik Unell, Rickard Hellman, Bjørnar Tonhaugen

We have made a number of adjustments to our financial forecasts including US rates, EUR/USD, GBP, CHF, JPY and base metals. The big story is unchanged!

Draghi turns more dovish

Published date: 4 Apr 2013 | Analyst: Anders Svendsen

Draghi turned more dovish at today’s ECB press conference. Another rate cut has become more likely, but still depend on incoming data in the near term.

ECB preview – still too early for Draghi to signal near-term rate cut

Published date: 2 Apr 2013 | Analyst: Anders Svendsen

We expect no changes in key policy rates and no new non-standard measures from the ECB at Thursday’s meeting. Lots of questions about Cyprus, but Draghi will probably not give any answers. Market reaction could be slightly negative again.

March

New financial forecasts

Published date: 19 Mar 2013 | Analysts: Anders Svendsen, Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rickard Hellman, Henrik Unell, Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Jan von Gerich, Aurelija Augulyte, Torbjörn Isaksson, Andreas Jonsson, Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen

Here are the usual financial forecast slides with our new financial forecasts published this this morning in Economic Outlook. We have changed our forecast for the Fed, the BoE, the SNB, Riksbanken, Euro rates, USD rates, EUR/USD, JPY, GBP, SEK, NOK, oil and the base metals.

Initial thoughts on the Cyprus deal

Published date: 18 Mar 2013 | Analysts: Anders Svendsen, Jan von Gerich, Aurelija Augulyte

A EUR 10bn bailout for Cyprus was agreed on Saturday. Today, the Cypriot parliament will have to pass the most controversial part of the bailout. In our view, the bailout does not change the overall picture for the Euro area here and now even if the final bailout terms include a haircut on deposits that was supposed to be insured. However, the current deal clearly increases the longer-term risks for the Euro area.

ECB keeps rates unchanged, but rate cut risks remain

Published date: 7 Mar 2013 | Analyst: Anders Svendsen

The ECB decided to keep interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting. Draghi’s statement was more or less unchanged in its wording compared with the statement a month ago. Draghi remains dovish but more weakness is needed to make the ECB cut rates.

ECB preview: No help for Italy

Published date: 4 Mar 2013 | Analyst: Anders Svendsen

We expect no changes in key policy rates and no new non-standard measures from the ECB at Thursday’s meeting. The new staff projections for growth and inflation will be roughly unchanged. There will be no help for Italy from the ECB.

February

Italian politics in a dead end – any way out?

Published date: 26 Feb 2013 | Analysts: Holger Sandte, Anders Svendsen, Aurelija Augulyte, Christian Börjesson, Steen Grøndahl

The one thing that seems clear after the Italian election is that nothing is clear at all and uncertainty will linger on. As Bersani put it: Italy is in "a very delicate situation."

The UK loses one of its triple-A’s

Published date: 24 Feb 2013 | Analyst: Anders Svendsen

The UK was downgraded one notch by Moody’s from Aaa to Aa1 on Friday. Moody’s says the rating outlook is now stable. It is not a major surprise that the UK has been downgraded. Many expected the downgrade already last year and there were numerous rumours during last week. S&P and Fitch both have the UK on negative outlook and may follow soon.

Now for the second big one

Published date: 18 Feb 2013 | Analysts: Jan von Gerich, Anders Svendsen, Alexander Wojt

The other bigger one-time repayment of ECB 3-year loans will take place next week, when the second 3-year LTRO will have its first repayment date. The repayment interest is likely to come below the EUR 137bn seen in the first operation. That said, as we have seen a notable correction lower in short interest rates since the first repayments, risks are tilted towards higher rates and a steeper money market curve ahead of Friday’s data.

Italian elections – what if Berlusconi wins?

Published date: 12 Feb 2013 | Analysts: Holger Sandte, Anders Svendsen, Christian Börjesson

Italian general elections, due 24-25 February, are nearing and hence we take the opportunity to sum up our views and add a scenario, where Berlusconi unexpectedly wins the lower house. The election is most likely to produce a favorable outcome …

Financial forecasts – More upside for EUR/USD and yields in the near term

Published date: 11 Feb 2013 | Analysts: Anders Svendsen, Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Aurelija Augulyte, Holger Sandte, Jan von Gerich, Henrik Unell, Rickard Hellman, Bjørnar Tonhaugen

This is a regular monthly update of our financial forecasts. See the summary below or the full report via the link. Markets have settled a bit since our 29 Jan update (Markets getting too far ahead of economies). Still, we …

Draghi optimistic but “monitoring closely”

Published date: 7 Feb 2013 | Analyst: Anders Svendsen

The ECB left key policy rates unchanged as widely expected. Draghi struck an optimistic tone, but was maybe slightly more concerned about the LTRO repayments and EUR strength than most had expected.

ECB preview: Is Draghi concerned about LTRO repayments and EUR strength?

Published date: 4 Feb 2013 | Analyst: Anders Svendsen

I expect no change in rates, no new non-standard measures and no change in bias. Is the ECB concerned about large-scale LTRO repayments draining liquidity? Is the ECB concerned about the rise in short rates and strengthening of the EUR?

Ny valutaprognose: Markederne for langt foran økonomierne

Published date: 1 Feb 2013 | Analysts: Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Anders Svendsen, Aurelija Augulyte, Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Jan von Gerich

De finansielle markeder vil være præget af risikovillighed i den nærmeste fremtid. Men som følge af manglen på fundamentale forbedringer venter vi en korrektion i løbet af foråret.

January

Strong EUR could prompt an ECB rate cut

Published date: 30 Jan 2013 | Analyst: Anders Svendsen

Expectations of another ECB rate cut were taken out of the markets after the January ECB meeting when Draghi was perceived to be too upbeat on growth prospects to consider cutting interest rates again. Ironically, Draghi’s tone and the surprisingly large LTRO repayments may force the ECB to cut interest rates again!

Markets getting too far ahead of economies

Published date: 29 Jan 2013 | Analysts: Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Anders Svendsen, Aurelija Augulyte, Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Jan von Gerich

Risk-on is likely to dominate in the very near-term but given the lack of fundamental improvements we expect to see a correction sometime during the spring.

And the nominee for best EU vision is … David Cameron

Published date: 23 Jan 2013 | Analyst: Anders Svendsen

David Cameron’s long awaited speech on the future of Britain in the EU was delivered today. The key message is that his government will campaign for a mandate to change the EU and Britain’s role in it in the 2015 elections and in exchange offer an in-or-out vote to the British people – probably in 2017, if everything goes according to plan.

LTRO repayments will be mostly good news

Published date: 22 Jan 2013 | Analyst: Anders Svendsen

In our view, the key questions are: 1.Who will repay and how much? 2.Will short rates move higher if a lot of LTRO loans are repaid? 3.Is it a good or a bad sign if a lot of LTRO loans are repaid? 4.Is there a case for an ECB response? 5.What will happen to German bonds?

German economy contracts

Published date: 15 Jan 2013 | Analyst: Anders Svendsen

The German statistics office said that the Q4 estimate was a 0.5% q/q contraction, making it the worst quarter since the disastrous 2009Q1.

Financial forecasts – New Year is over, but the party is not

Published date: 14 Jan 2013 | Analysts: Anders Svendsen, Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Jan von Gerich, Aurelija Augulyte, Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Erik Bruce, Henrik Unell, Rickard Hellman

We have only made minor changes to the financial forecasts this time: We have lifted our mid-year target for the EUR/USD to 1.25, made minor changes to the GBP forecast, lowered our 3M EUR/SEK forecast to 8.60 and we have postponed the first hike from Norges Bank to March 2014 and only expect two hikes in 2014.

Draghi keeps the door wide open for more easing, but it will require more weakness

Published date: 10 Jan 2013 | Analyst: Anders Svendsen

The ECB decided to keep interest rates on hold today as most had expected. At the press conference, ECB President Draghi more or less repeated the statement from December, which in our view means that the door is wide open for more ECB easing, but it will require more economic weakness.

Price level targeting – next ECB easing step

Published date: 8 Jan 2013 | Analyst: Anders Svendsen

The next easing step from the ECB could be the introduction of a temporary price level target path.

Italian politics gets more messy

Published date: 7 Jan 2013 | Analysts: Anders Svendsen, Jan von Gerich

Berlusconi announced on Monday that his party, the People of Freedom (PdL), had formed an electoral pact with Lega Nord. This move increases the risk of a hung government and, in turn, a weak government, exactly what Italy does not need.

ECB preview – no rate cut, but dovish tone

Published date: 7 Jan 2013 | Analyst: Anders Svendsen

I do not expect any action from the ECB at this Thursday’s meeting. There is still a risk that the refi rate will be cut, though, and, if not, the door will be kept wide open for future rate cuts.