We have an action-packed week ahead of us, with non-farm-payrolls, ISM and central bank meetings in Europe and UK. Find our expectations here.
Anders Svendsen is a Chief Analyst with Nordea, covering the Euro area economy. He has over 10 years of experience in global financial markets, mainly covering economies and currencies in the burgeoning emerging markets arena.
Anders is currently very focussed on the debt crisis in the Euro area and its implications from an economic point of view as well as analysing the consequences for FX and fixed income markets.
The flash estimate of Euro-area HICP inflation in February came out at 0.8% y/y, which is unchanged from the revised January number and a small upside surprise to our expectations and consensus expectations of 0.7%.
We expect the Euro-area flash HICP inflation estimate (Friday 11:00 CET) to be 0.7% y/y. We see risks skewed to the downside to tomorrow’s number. However, with Germany out already, the risk of a number low enough to prompt ECB easing next week in itself is probably fairly low, especially because the German numbers were held down by falling energy prices.
Ifo came in better than expected, supporting the view of an improving growth outlook. If the ECB were to act in March it would not be because of growth, but a deteriorating inflation outlook. However, inflation was revised higher for January. Bund yields a bit higher. Friday's flash inflation for February will be next crucial information.
We have updated our financial forecasts
The German IFO index on Monday and the Euro area flash CPI on Friday are the main events next week. Find our expectations here. Enjoy!