DCSIMG

Sweden and the SEK – 9.35 old normal 8.35 in new normal

There has been a multitude of under-capitalised public finances and growing public debt ever since the EMU was formed. This is of course one of the key reasons for why Europe is in its current state, and for the sagging confidence in the euro. It is reasonable that the balance of power on the foreign exchange market has generally shifted to the advantage of the SEK, when comparing with other types of key indicators such as growth, inflation and the trade balance. It is therefore reasonable to assume that the shift in the SEK level versus the EUR is more permanent than transitional.

Latest research

Swedish Morning Briefing - Tuesday 15 April

• Obama warns Putin • Ukraine raises policy rate

Competitiveness of the Nordics

Financial crisis and subsequent Euro crisis have cast doubts on the future prosperity of the Nordic countries. This report takes a closer look at the competitive position of the Nordics over past ten years and aims at answering how worried these countriesshould be.

Euro Rates Update

The latest Euro Rates Update is now available

FI Eye-Opener: Still going lower

Bond yields rebound, but bonds with more performance potential left. Intra-Euro-zone spreads narrow. Equities rise – more downside potential in the near term. US retail sales beat expectations. Eyes on US CPI and Yellen’s speech.

EM FX: Ukraine takes the headlines again

The Ukrainian President's deadline for rebels occupying state buildings in Eastern Ukraine to lay down their weapons have passed. Markets are awaiting news. EM FX is slightly weaker this morning, especially the RUB, the PLN and the TRY, but it seems that markets are becoming more resilient to headline news from Ukraine.

Swedish Morning Briefing - Monday 14 April

• Brighter outlook for global growth • Swedish finance minister worried about inflation

Euro Rates Update

The latest Euro Rates Update is now available

FI Eye-Opener: Please stop strengthening, we are asking nicely

Bonds with more gains on Friday – German 10-year yield to break lower today. Finnish bonds feeling some pressure after a negative outlook by S&P. Correction lower in equities has further to run. ECB fights the stronger currency with words – and talks further about QE. LTRO payments continue coming in – ECB more concerned about the rising euro. US retail sales & inflation, Chinese GDP and corporate earnings ahead. New French 2-year benchmark out this week.

Week Ahead: 12 - 25 April 2014

We cover two weeks in this Easter edition of Week Ahead. Important data prints from China, US inflation, PMI's, German Ifo and more...

Global FX Strategy: QE-nomics

Despite the QE-rumours, we still believe that the EUR has some upside left versus the USD short term. Find out why in this edition of our flagship FX publication, alongside views on NOK, SEK, JPY, AUD, CAD, NZD and Emerging Markets currencies. Enjoy!

European FI Strategy: Mad about QE

Euro zone QE talks all over the place, but there is still room for curve flattening and demand continues to be strong, also for Scandies. Find out what we favor in this month's edition of European FI Strategy.

Swedish Morning Briefing - Friday 11 April

• Finland – S&P affirms AAA but lowers outlook to negative • Nasdaq sees largest decline since November 2011

Finland: King of ratings no more

The credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s surprisingly changed its outlook for the AAA rating of Finland from stable to negative, the first major rating agency to do so. The action puts more pressure on the already shaky government and will deliver a hit to Finnish bonds, very dependent on the highest ratings.

Euro Rates Update

The latest Euro Rates Update is now available

FI Eye-Opener: Bye, bye, Finnish AAA?

Bonds with a big rally yesterday – curves bull-flatten. German 10-year yield gathering momentum to break lower – a correction higher in yields still likely today. Finnish credit rating starting to feel pressure – more pressure for the shaky government. Huge demand for the new Greek benchmark. US consumer confidence and IMF Spring meetings ahead. Italian auctions concluding a busy supply week.

Northern Lights: Goldilocks?

Following this morning’s CPI figures, the Riksbank is widely expected to cut rates. But how can you trade SEK and Swedish Rates in this environment? Find out more on that, alongside updated views from our macroeconomists and strategists across the Nordic region. Northern Light gives you everything you need on Scandinavian Macro, FX and Fixed Income. Enjoy!

Comment Norway: Inflation on the upside

• March core inflation at 2.6% up from 2.4% last month • Above Norges Bank and consensus at 2.5% and Nordea at 2.4%

SEK FX & FI Strategy - Market commentary

Market commentary in the wake of record low CPIF inflation

Sweden: Historical low inflation favours a rate cut

March CPI came out much lower than forecast. CPI remained unchanged on the month while it was widely expected that the CPI would rise by 0.3% on the month. We, the Riksbank and consensus had all the same forecast. Needless to say, this strengthens the view that the Riksbank will cut rates in July.

Denmark: Another round of very low inflation

Danish CPI-inflation rose by 0.4% y/y in March vs. 0.5% in February. This was much lower than expected (consensus 0.6%, Nordea 0.7%).