Ekonomiska Utsikter – Världsekonomin på lågvarv
ECB tar en mer aktiv roll
Ljusare utsikter i USA stärker global riskvilja
Sverige rider ut stormen
Trots fortsatt oro på finansmarknaderna och stora utmaningar inte minst i Europa ser vi en aning mer optimistiskt på framtiden.
ECB-chefen Mario Draghis starka uttalanden om att euron är här för att stanna sätter tonen. Det ska mycket till för att beslutsfattare och politiker ska låta euron haverera.
Vägen framåt är långt ifrån enkel, men det går sakta åt rätt håll. Den ekonomiska utvecklingen blir svag i Europa, men det är tillväxt från och med nästa år.
Även i USA och Kina sätter den politiska agendan prägeln. I USA krävs politiska överenskommelser för att inte finanspolitiken ska bli mycket åtstramande.
Kina byter politisk ledning, troligen i höst. Den nuvarande ledningen har också bytt fot och börjat stimulera ekonomin igen.
Politiska beslut och utspel blir därmed ett centralt inslag i stora delar av världen under prognosperioden.
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Europe’s debts at record level Higher rating for Portugal
If you are just back from holiday, here are a few bullets on what happened while you were busy …
The latest Euro Rates Update is now available
Bonds rally again ahead of the weekend, but core yields to creep higher today. Equities under pressure on Friday. German Ifo disappoints – UK growth still strong. The surge in LTRO repayments not repeated. Portugal receives good news from Moody’s. What is with Germany and a tighter EU? A huge week ahead: the Fed, US GDP, Euro-zone inflation and payrolls. Italian & US auctions and plenty of coupons and redemptions.
Today Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to raise the key rate by 50 b.p. to 8%. RUB may find support, but geopolitics will remain the focal point for the Russian currency market.
Big week in the US with GDP, Fed, ISM and payrolls. Flash estimates on July inflation will be out for the Euro Area and ECB will publish the Bank Lending Survey on Wednesday. In Norway the labour market will be in focus. Sweden will be out with both PMI and GDP Q2 (early estimate)
Strong GDP growth continued in the UK economy in Q2, with growth coming in at 0.8% q/q, in line with expectations, which was enough to lift the y/y rate to 3.1%, the highest since the last quarter of 2007. On a q/q basis, growth has been running at 0.7-0.8% for five consecutive quarters already, a remarkably stable performance.
The manufacturing motor sputters but growth is not over.
Strong retail sales. Continued increase in household lending.
Japanese CPI up 3.6% in June Swedish retail sales due at 9.30
Yields headed higher on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday. Buying of core bonds to resume today, as concerns over Ukraine/Russia continue. S&P 500 squeezes another high. Market impact from positive PMIs likely short-lived. US economic data mixed. Busy Friday ahead: UK GDP, Ifo, Euro-zone credit data, Russian ratings. Another sizable LTRO repayment to put some upward pressure on the short end.
The official election result is out and Indonesia has got a new president, the popular Jokowi. This is already priced in the market so IDR will be range-bound for now. It would be IDR positive in a longer perspective, if he succeeds in promoting growth and improving standards of living.
The flash PMIs for July point to a continued recovery in the Euro-area economy. Positive development in sentiment indicators is certainly welcome at a time, when the effect of e.g. the Ukrainian/Russian crisis is weighing on the economy. It is worth remembering that the numbers are unlikely to capture the recent escalation in geopolitical tensions, but the latest weakening of the euro and the ECB’s June easing package, on the other hand, are supportive of the Euro-area economy.
Unemployment bounced back somewhat in June after the stronger than expected reading in May. Seen over the last two years, it is very hard to spot any clear trend downward in unemployment, despite the clear trend upward in employment. Today’s number did not change this overall picture and the expected, future decrease in unemployment seems to continue to be very gradual.
South Korea presents stimulus package Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifts policy rate
The Chinese economy is currently in a cyclical upturn. But the long-term perspective has not changed. The economy will continue to readjust to the new normal, meaning that a significant pick-up of growth is unlikely.
German bonds take back earlier losses – yields to creep higher today. S&P 500 just manages to rise to new highs. China’s economy picks up steam. Bank of England not unanimous for too much longer? Russian sanctions on the agenda again. Euro-zone PMIs set to rebound.
BoE minutes showed a unanimous monetary policy decision at the July meeting, but the differing views about the outlook are starting to emerge. The modest wage pressures mean that the Bank is not in any hurry to start to raise rates, and the first rate hike is not around the corner. The August monetary policy meeting and the inflation report will be interesting.
RT @cnbcSri: UPDATED-OIL POLL: Expanded @CNBC poll shows 37% (13/35) see #Brent gains this week, nearly 37% (13/35) forecast declines, 26% …