DCSIMG

Ekonomiska Utsikter – Världsekonomin på lågvarv

 

  • ECB tar en mer aktiv roll

  • Ljusare utsikter i USA stärker global riskvilja

  • Sverige rider ut stormen

Trots fortsatt oro på finansmarknaderna och stora utmaningar inte minst i Europa ser vi en aning mer optimistiskt på framtiden.

ECB-chefen Mario Draghis starka uttalanden om att euron är här för att stanna sätter tonen. Det ska mycket till för att beslutsfattare och politiker ska låta euron haverera.

Vägen framåt är långt ifrån enkel, men det går sakta åt rätt håll. Den ekonomiska utvecklingen blir svag i Europa, men det är tillväxt från och med nästa år.

Även i USA och Kina sätter den politiska agendan prägeln. I USA krävs politiska överenskommelser för att inte finanspolitiken ska bli mycket åtstramande.

Kina byter politisk ledning, troligen i höst. Den nuvarande ledningen har också bytt fot och börjat stimulera ekonomin igen.

Politiska beslut och utspel blir därmed ett centralt inslag i stora delar av världen under prognosperioden.

 

Other languages:

Latest research

US: Q2 GDP preview – unimpressive rebound or...

Although our forecast for Q2 GDP growth implies barely positive growth in the last two quarters combined, we do not believe the H1 average is a fair measure of the state of the economy as the GDP data look implausibly weak relatively to a broad range of activity indicators for Q1.

US: Fed to push yields and the USD higher - FOMC preview

Since the Fed chair Yellen is not holding a press conference after today's FOMC meeting, the Fed is not expected to stray from the current policy course. This means the central bank will slow its bond buying, but make no changes to its forward guidance. The FOMC statement will likely assume a slightly more positive characterisation of the labour market, which should be enough to put some upward pressure on yields and further strengthen the USD.

Euro Rates Update

The latest Euro Rates Update is now available

FI Eye-Opener: Bulls still see red

Core bonds rally – German 10-year yield with a new record low. Intra-Euro-zone spreads mostly narrow further. Bonds to feel some pressure for a change today. Further sizable sanctions imposed on Russia. US housing market still struggling – consumer confidence surges. German inflation numbers and the Fed’s message to push yields higher. US GDP and the ECB’s lending survey with something positive to say. US and Italian auctions ahead.

Preview of Swedish Q2 GDP – households take off

We expect GDP to have expanded by 0.9% q/q in Q2. The second quarter is characterised by strong consumption growth, subdued exports and higher productivity. Our forecast is above the Riksbank’s view. The text has been changed on Tuesday 29 July 13.00.*

Preliminary Prepayments

Preliminary Prepayments

Swedish Morning Briefing - Tuesday July 29

Further sanctions against Russia Israeli PM preparing for long-term conflict

FI Eye-Opener: Gravity

Core bond yields edge higher – yields with some more upside potential today. Spanish and Italian 10-year yields hit record lows. US housing market continues to struggle – confidence indicators positive. Russian sanctions on the agenda again. US house prices and consumer confidence ahead.

Euro Rates Update

The latest Euro Rates Update is now available

Swedish Morning Briefing - Monday July 28

Europe’s debts at record level Higher rating for Portugal

While you were busy ...

If you are just back from holiday, here are a few bullets on what happened while you were busy …

FI Eye-Opener: Prepare for a big week

Bonds rally again ahead of the weekend, but core yields to creep higher today. Equities under pressure on Friday. German Ifo disappoints – UK growth still strong. The surge in LTRO repayments not repeated. Portugal receives good news from Moody’s. What is with Germany and a tighter EU? A huge week ahead: the Fed, US GDP, Euro-zone inflation and payrolls. Italian & US auctions and plenty of coupons and redemptions.

RUB: Central Bank decided to raise the key rate, inflation is in focus

Today Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to raise the key rate by 50 b.p. to 8%. RUB may find support, but geopolitics will remain the focal point for the Russian currency market.

Week Ahead: 26 Jul - 01 Aug 2014

Big week in the US with GDP, Fed, ISM and payrolls. Flash estimates on July inflation will be out for the Euro Area and ECB will publish the Bank Lending Survey on Wednesday. In Norway the labour market will be in focus. Sweden will be out with both PMI and GDP Q2 (early estimate)

UK: leaving previous peaks behind

Strong GDP growth continued in the UK economy in Q2, with growth coming in at 0.8% q/q, in line with expectations, which was enough to lift the y/y rate to 3.1%, the highest since the last quarter of 2007. On a q/q basis, growth has been running at 0.7-0.8% for five consecutive quarters already, a remarkably stable performance.

Germany: Ifo decline once again highlights external vulnerability

The manufacturing motor sputters but growth is not over.

Sweden: retail sales and lending; households getting more confident

Strong retail sales. Continued increase in household lending.

Swedish Morning Briefing - Friday July 25

Japanese CPI up 3.6% in June Swedish retail sales due at 9.30

FI Eye-Opener: Bulls to strike back today

Yields headed higher on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday. Buying of core bonds to resume today, as concerns over Ukraine/Russia continue. S&P 500 squeezes another high. Market impact from positive PMIs likely short-lived. US economic data mixed. Busy Friday ahead: UK GDP, Ifo, Euro-zone credit data, Russian ratings. Another sizable LTRO repayment to put some upward pressure on the short end.

IDR: Jokowi win paves way for strengthening

The official election result is out and Indonesia has got a new president, the popular Jokowi. This is already priced in the market so IDR will be range-bound for now. It would be IDR positive in a longer perspective, if he succeeds in promoting growth and improving standards of living.