Ekonomiska Utsikter – Världsekonomin på lågvarv
ECB tar en mer aktiv roll
Ljusare utsikter i USA stärker global riskvilja
Sverige rider ut stormen
Trots fortsatt oro på finansmarknaderna och stora utmaningar inte minst i Europa ser vi en aning mer optimistiskt på framtiden.
ECB-chefen Mario Draghis starka uttalanden om att euron är här för att stanna sätter tonen. Det ska mycket till för att beslutsfattare och politiker ska låta euron haverera.
Vägen framåt är långt ifrån enkel, men det går sakta åt rätt håll. Den ekonomiska utvecklingen blir svag i Europa, men det är tillväxt från och med nästa år.
Även i USA och Kina sätter den politiska agendan prägeln. I USA krävs politiska överenskommelser för att inte finanspolitiken ska bli mycket åtstramande.
Kina byter politisk ledning, troligen i höst. Den nuvarande ledningen har också bytt fot och börjat stimulera ekonomin igen.
Politiska beslut och utspel blir därmed ett centralt inslag i stora delar av världen under prognosperioden.
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Although our forecast for Q2 GDP growth implies barely positive growth in the last two quarters combined, we do not believe the H1 average is a fair measure of the state of the economy as the GDP data look implausibly weak relatively to a broad range of activity indicators for Q1.
Since the Fed chair Yellen is not holding a press conference after today's FOMC meeting, the Fed is not expected to stray from the current policy course. This means the central bank will slow its bond buying, but make no changes to its forward guidance. The FOMC statement will likely assume a slightly more positive characterisation of the labour market, which should be enough to put some upward pressure on yields and further strengthen the USD.
The latest Euro Rates Update is now available
Core bonds rally – German 10-year yield with a new record low. Intra-Euro-zone spreads mostly narrow further. Bonds to feel some pressure for a change today. Further sizable sanctions imposed on Russia. US housing market still struggling – consumer confidence surges. German inflation numbers and the Fed’s message to push yields higher. US GDP and the ECB’s lending survey with something positive to say. US and Italian auctions ahead.
We expect GDP to have expanded by 0.9% q/q in Q2. The second quarter is characterised by strong consumption growth, subdued exports and higher productivity. Our forecast is above the Riksbank’s view. The text has been changed on Tuesday 29 July 13.00.*
Further sanctions against Russia Israeli PM preparing for long-term conflict
Core bond yields edge higher – yields with some more upside potential today. Spanish and Italian 10-year yields hit record lows. US housing market continues to struggle – confidence indicators positive. Russian sanctions on the agenda again. US house prices and consumer confidence ahead.
The latest Euro Rates Update is now available
Europe’s debts at record level Higher rating for Portugal
If you are just back from holiday, here are a few bullets on what happened while you were busy …
Bonds rally again ahead of the weekend, but core yields to creep higher today. Equities under pressure on Friday. German Ifo disappoints – UK growth still strong. The surge in LTRO repayments not repeated. Portugal receives good news from Moody’s. What is with Germany and a tighter EU? A huge week ahead: the Fed, US GDP, Euro-zone inflation and payrolls. Italian & US auctions and plenty of coupons and redemptions.
Today Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to raise the key rate by 50 b.p. to 8%. RUB may find support, but geopolitics will remain the focal point for the Russian currency market.
Big week in the US with GDP, Fed, ISM and payrolls. Flash estimates on July inflation will be out for the Euro Area and ECB will publish the Bank Lending Survey on Wednesday. In Norway the labour market will be in focus. Sweden will be out with both PMI and GDP Q2 (early estimate)
Strong GDP growth continued in the UK economy in Q2, with growth coming in at 0.8% q/q, in line with expectations, which was enough to lift the y/y rate to 3.1%, the highest since the last quarter of 2007. On a q/q basis, growth has been running at 0.7-0.8% for five consecutive quarters already, a remarkably stable performance.
The manufacturing motor sputters but growth is not over.
Strong retail sales. Continued increase in household lending.
Japanese CPI up 3.6% in June Swedish retail sales due at 9.30
Yields headed higher on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday. Buying of core bonds to resume today, as concerns over Ukraine/Russia continue. S&P 500 squeezes another high. Market impact from positive PMIs likely short-lived. US economic data mixed. Busy Friday ahead: UK GDP, Ifo, Euro-zone credit data, Russian ratings. Another sizable LTRO repayment to put some upward pressure on the short end.
The official election result is out and Indonesia has got a new president, the popular Jokowi. This is already priced in the market so IDR will be range-bound for now. It would be IDR positive in a longer perspective, if he succeeds in promoting growth and improving standards of living.
RT @SuviKosonen: We expect German #inflation to print at 0.9% today, slightly ahead of consensus. Euro area tomorrow expected at 0.5% #ECB
We expect German #inflation to print at 0.9% today, slightly ahead of consensus. Euro area tomorrow expected at 0.5% #ECB
RT @JanVonGerich: German 10Y yield hits new lows. Fresh Russian sanctions to cause stagnation worries in the EZ. Huge calendar ahead. http:…