DCSIMG

Swedish CPI preview and index-linked bonds

We expect that CPI will decrease by 0.3% in July corresponding to a y/y inflation rate of 0.7%.

Record low electricity prices are holding Swedish inflation down while food prices are continuing to rise. Although the strong Swedish Krona is a force for lower inflation, we fail to see any obvious impact on the shape of the real rate yield curve.

Given the ultra-flat Swedish yield curve, both compared to international and nominal curves, we like short-term  linkers better than long term.

Latest research

Central Bank Watch: New Governors at the Riksbank

Today Cecilia Skingsley (b. 1968) and Martin Flodén (b. 1970) were appointed as new governors at the Riksbank. Premature to do the bird-classification. We regard both candidates as skilled with judicious minds and integrity. Both will be voting already in the upcoming July meeting,…

Hawkish comments and demand for RUB offset oil market dynamics

RUB retreated yesterday as oil market turned around and declined slightly. Brent futures dropped below $104 /bbl., as data showed a surprise jump in U.S. gasoline stockpiles. However Russian currency has strong support these days given robust RUB purchases ahead of tax payments. Exporters help…

Euro-area growth forecast update – slow for longer

We revise down our GDP forecasts from -0.4% to -0.8% for 2013 and from 1.4% to 1% for next year. We don’t surrender to those forecasting no growth at all also for next year. We maintain our view that the balance of risk is for ECB to keep rates unchanged.