Inflation – mind the gap
The July inflation readings are due out on 10 August. We share the consensus forecast of core inflation at 1.2%, unchanged from last month, while Norges Bank’s forecast is 1.4%.
If we are right, the gap between Norges Bank’s forecast and actual inflation and will shrink from ½ to ¼% point. In that case the domestic arguments for a rate cut disappear. However, we doubt it will have any impact on the market, which is pricing in a rate cut late this year. That view is probably not based on the domestic economy
But what happen if we are wrong and what about NOK ? Read the full report:
Read full report
Latest research
Shipping Essentials Weekly
New financial forecasts
Nitty Gritty on Sweden: The upward trend in the labour supply remains intact
Most read
Latest tweets
-
RT @edgarsrinkevics: AirBaltic flight from Amsterdam to Riga is delayed because of cat who has arrived from Riga and refused to disembark the plane #Ilovemyjob:)
-
Dudley ‘sees risk investors could over-react to normalization.’ Oh, like they have overreacted to the abnormalization? #Fed
-
What a waste of a slide #Fed http://t.co/sawnYKLzZ8
-
Problem is there is no alternative lower rate path in last report… I believe he tries to say that a cut not so likely – but still possible
-
EUR/NOK seems to react on Olsen’s comments: “No reason to consider alternative lower rate path at the moment” (quote on Reuters).
