DCSIMG

Betalingsbalancen går amok

Helge J Pedersen
Den danske betalingsbalance udviste i juni et amokoverskud på hele 15,3 mia. kroner. Det er det største overskud på betalingsbalancen i en enkelt måned nogensinde og dækker over en fremgang på 2,6 mia. kroner i forhold til maj. Set over de seneste 12 måneder har overskuddet dermed været på 112 mia. kroner.

Stort betalingsbalanceoverskud sikrer lave renter…
Det store overskud på betalingsbalancen er rigtig godt for Danmark, fordi det er med til at manifestere positionen som sikker havn på de finansielle markeder og – og dermed i sidste ende fastholde de nuværende ekstremt lave renter, der er en vigtig byggesten til fremtidig vækst og som holder hånden under det ekstremt skrøbelige boligmarked.

…og måske misundelse fra udlandet
Det er også værd at bemærke, at overskuddet på betalingsbalancen er meget bredt funderet. Overskuddet på varer-, tjenester-, og løn- og formueindkomstbalancen er stort set lige store, og i en periode, hvor importen er steget stærkere end eksporten, og overskuddet på varebalancen derfor er faldet, er det blevet kompenseret af tilsvarende større overskud på de øvrige poster. Overskuddet på tjenestebalancen er steget som følge af fremgang i indtægterne fra søtransporten, som nyder godt af stigende verdenshandel og den stærkere dollars, mens store indtægter fra danske virksomheders investeringer i udlandet øger løn- og formueindkomsterne. Det giver en fantastisk stabil udvikling på betalingsbalancen, som mange andre lande må misunde Danmark.

Solidt overskud på betalingsbalancen

Dansk eksport holder skindet på næsen i en svær tid
I juni steg eksporten af varer med 1% i forhold til maj, og over de seneste 3 måneder er den steget med knap 3%. Dermed holder de danske virksomheder fortsat skindet på næsen i forhold til afmatningen i den internationale økonomi.

Eksporten til andre EU-lande vokser fortsat, og ikke mindst eksporten til den bomstærke svenske økonomi og til Polen er i høj vækst. Det et også bemærkelsesværdigt, at eksporten til Tyskland i juni atter var i fremgang i juni til trods for de klare svaghedstegn i Europas største økonomi.

Eksporten til lande udenfor EU faldt lidt i juni, men er steget med 4% henover den seneste tre-måneders periode – og med hele 15% siden juni 2011. Især eksporten til USA og Norge har været i fremgang, mens der lidt bekymrende er tegn på en svag udvikling i eksporten til Kina og de øvrige BRIK-lande.

Det er også værd at hæfte sig ved, at importen steg med hele 1,5% over måneden. Det indikerer, at der fortsat er gang i den hjemlige økonomi. Over det seneste år er importen da også steget med næsten 4%. Det er især varer fra Tyskland, Sverige og Polen, som Danmark har øget importen fra over det seneste år.

Svære måneder i vente
Krisen har kradset yderligere henover sommeren og det skal blive spændende at se, om den relativt fine udvikling i udenrigshandlen kan vare ved. Men den diversiferede danske eksportstruktur (målt både pa vare- og landegrupper) giver håb om, at eksporten også kan holde sig oven vande i årets tredje kvartal selvom betingelserne er blevet klart sværere i lyset af genopblusningen af den europæiske gældskrise.
Helge Pedersen

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