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Usædvanlige bevægelser i FX EUR/USD

Jan BylovVi er i disse dage vidne til nogle meget sjældne kursbevægelser i verdens mest handlede valutakryds, EUR/USD. Så sjældne, at jeg ikke kan mindes at have oplevet noget tilsvarende siden 1999.

Europa er under pres – som vi alle er meget bevidste om – men siden 1. juni er EUR/USD begyndt at konsolidere/korrigere sin tekniske nedtrend, som har domineret siden maj 2011, og her opstår det interessante.

Korrektionen opad i EUR/USD er fulgt at to væsentlige begivenheder og to usædvanlige markedsreaktioner:

  1. Den spanske bankpakke indtraf over en weekend, og EUR/USD åbnede mandag morgen i Asien på meget højere kurser end fredagens lukkekurs. Et sådant spring (gap) i verdens mest handlede valutakryds indtræffer ikke ofte, og endnu sjældnere i en sådan størrelse. Springet i kursen udtrykker optimisme, men denne umiddelbare optimisme blev hastigt vendt, og dagens sluttede meget lavere, se candlestick graf.
  2. Det græske valg blev – som bekendt – afviklet over en weekend, og EUR/USD åbnede mandag morgen i Asien på meget højere kurser end fredagens lukkekurs i New York. Igen, det er meget sjældent at kursen i EUR/USD springer i nogen betydende grad! Optimismen oven på det græske valgresultat blev i går hurtigt gjort til skamme, og dagen sluttede meget lavere, se candlestick graf.
  3. Begge makro-begivenheder og usædvanlige markedsreaktioner kan også ses af den nederste tidszone-graf (time), hvor springene i kursen for EUR/USD meget tydeligt fremgår.

Det er min fortolkning af markedsreaktionerne, at markedsdeltagerne gerne vil opleve noget ”optimistisk” (hvilket vel er forståeligt), men at markedsaktørerne benytter enhver midlertidig optimisme til at sælge ind i. Dette må betyde, at frygt stadig er den alt dominerende faktor.

Konsekvenser:

  1. Trods historisk store spekulative salgspositioner i EUR/USD (jf. US CFTC rapport), så signallerer de seneste meget negative candlestick-signaler distribution… og at markedet er ved at toppe ud efter endnu en midlertidig korrektion højere.
  2. Næste større kursbevægelse i EUR/USD vil jeg forvente bliver nedad igen. Det er dog endnu for tidligt at konkludere, at gårsdagens top på kurs 1,2748 bliver ultimativt afgørende.
  3. Modsat, så er det min vurdering, at kun en endnu større makro-begivenhed (f.eks. indskudsgaranti i EU-banker, koordineret centralbank indgriben etc.) kan forventes at igangsætte en udbredt nedlukning (tilbagekøb) af spekulanternes salgspositioner i EUR/USD… og dermed noget højere EUR/USD mod 1,30.

Ekstremt sjældne candlestick salgssignaler i EUR/USD

 

Tidszone-graf i EUR/USD (rød=Asien, blå=Europa, grøn=USA)

 

Jan Bylov

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