Economic Outlook Nordics – At a cliff’s edge
The global economy is still expanding, but the growth picture has become more mixed in recent months.
While the US economy is heading for a self-sustaining upswing, Europe seems to be sliding into a deep crisis. High growth rates are still only seen among the Emerging Markets countries, which at an early stage countered the signs of economic deceleration through monetary policy easing.
We reiterate our forecast of global growth of 2.8% this year, while the forecast for 2013 has been lowered to 3.2% versus 3.4% in March.
In this report:
Greece is setting the agenda
The crisis in the Euro area has been exacerbated by the uncertain political situation in Greece.
US problems overshadowed by euro crisis
The US is presently comfortably shielded, because the spotlight is on the problems in Europe. But it is worth bearing in mind that the US still has major debt problems.
Light Nordic nights
Against the background of the escalating Euro-area debt crisis the Nordic countries have cemented their position as safe havens in the financial markets.
Even the Nordic countries are facing challenges in terms of sustainable growth
- The Euro area crisis, the stifled housing market and a strong reluctance among households to spend money have sent chills through the Danish economy over the past months.
- The Swedish economy has weathered the economic turmoil surprisingly well and after falling towards the end of last year, GDP rose again in Q1.
- Also the Finnish economy grew surprisingly strongly in Q1 2012, driven by a strong performance in domestic consumption and exports.
- Norway still has the yellow jersey in the Nordic growth race. Economic growth has been very solid, and strong income growth looks set to lift consumption growth beyond our expectations.