Baltics Q1 GDP update: Growth holding up
GDP growth is holding up surprisingly well in the Baltic countries, according to the recently released flash GDP estimates. This reduces fears that the slowdown in the euro area would weigh significantly on the Baltic economies this year.
Estonian growth surprised positively at 3.9% y/y (Q4: 4.5%), 0.5% q/q -> We see upside risks to our growth forecast of 2.0% y/y this year.
In Latvia growth actually accelerated to 6.8% y/y in Q1 (5.7% in Q4), exceeding expectations. Q/Q growth was at a strong 1.0% -> Upside risks to our 2.0% y/y forecast.
In Lithuania growth slowed to 3.9% y/y (4.4% in Q4). Compared to the previous quarter growth was still a decent 0.8% -> We expect growth to average 2.7% y/y in 2012.
Read more in the attached file.