ECB’s lending survey adds to growth concerns

ECB’s bank lending survey shows that the risk of a credit crunch has diminished after the LTRO’s, as expected. However, it also added to the concerns about the underlying growth momentum in the euro-area economy, as the demand for loans fell sharply. That, together with the sharp drop in the PMI index for April released Monday, suggests that the downside risk to growth in the Euro area have increased.

The need for additional crisis measures from the ECB has diminished, but interest rate cuts have become more likely!

A net 9% of banks said they have tightened credit standards to firms in Q1 down from 35% in Q4 last year, a net 2% of banks expect to tighten of credit standards to firms further in Q2 vs 25% in Q1, and a net 17% of banks said they have tightened credit standards to households for housing purchases in Q1 down from 29% in Q4 last year.

Latest research

Swedish Week Ahead No 22

Published date: 24 May 2013 | Analysts: Torbjörn Isaksson, Andreas Jonsson

Swedish week ahead for week 22 is published.

Swedish Q1 GDP preview: yet another factor for a rate cut

Published date: 24 May 2013 | Analyst: Torbjörn Isaksson

We expect Q1 GDP to be down 0.2% q/q. Our forecast is below the Riksbank’s view. The GDP trend is yet another factor pointing to a rate cut.

Less cheerful Swedish consumers

Published date: 24 May 2013 | Analyst: Andreas Jonsson

Although Swedish consumer sentiment fell back in May, we see no drama in the figures. The downturn of the CCI from 5.2 in April to 3.2 in May was modest. Recall that the indicator stood at -12 in December, so there’s still a significant pick-up…