Kiina jälleen kääntymässä talouskasvua tukevaksi tekijäksi

Kiinan nousu oli keskeisessä roolissa maailmantalouden toipuessa finanssikriisistä. Vaikka Kiinan kasvanut rooli maailmantaloudessa tiedostetaan yleisesti, analyyseissa Kiina usein kuitenkin unohdetaan. Maailman talouskasvun hidastumisessa vuonna 2011 Kiinalla oli jälleen selkeästi osuutensa. Kiinan talouskasvun hidastuminen on seurausta maan keskuspankin tietoisista toimista hidastaa inflaatiota. Inflaation nyt jo hidastuttua keskuspankki on jälleen alkanut höllentää rahahanoja, minkä pitäisi hiljalleen tukea talouskasvua.

Kiinan talouskasvu hidastui selkeästi viime vuonna. Syy tähän oli viranomaisten tietoinen jarrutus, kun pelättiin talouden ylikuumenemista. Inflaatio oli kiihtynyt yli kuuteen prosenttiin, selvästi yli keskuspankin neljän prosentin tavoitteen. Keskuspankki reagoi tähän kiristämällä rahahanoja ensisijaisesti nostamalla pankkien varantotalletusvaatimuksia sekä nostamalla korkoja.

Kiinan rahapolitiikan seuraaminen on haastavampaa kuin länsimaiden. Tältäkin osin Kiina on erilainen. Koroilla on vähemmän merkitystä. Viime vuonna koron nostamisella osoitettiin halua jarruttaa taloutta, mutta inflaation kiihtyessä reaalikorkojen annettiin pudota negatiivisiksi. Korkojen taso ei siten paljon auttanut jarruttamaan talouden kasvua lähes kymmenen prosentin vuosivauhdista.

Korkojen sijaan Kiinan keskuspankki turvautuu enemmän korkeisiin varantotalletusvaati-muksiin, jotka pakottavat pankit tallettamaan merkittävän osan saamistaan talletuksista keskuspankkiin. Lisäksi keskuspankki asettaa suoraan, joskus hyvin yksityiskohtaisesti, rajoitteita pankkien luotonannolle. Siten ehkä paras mittari keskuspankin toimille on luotonannon kasvu, josta tietoa tosin julkaistaan viiveellä.

Viime vuoden lopulla inflaatio hidastui neljän prosentin tavoitteen tuntumaan. Keskuspankki aloittikin marraskuussa rahapolitiikan keventämisen alentamalla varantotalletusvaatimusta ja laski sitä toissaviikolla toistamiseen. On siten syytä uskoa, että Kiina hiljalleen kääntyy jälleen maailmantalouden kasvua jarruttavasta tekijästä kasvua tukevaksi tekijäksi.


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