Kiina jälleen kääntymässä talouskasvua tukevaksi tekijäksi

Kiinan nousu oli keskeisessä roolissa maailmantalouden toipuessa finanssikriisistä. Vaikka Kiinan kasvanut rooli maailmantaloudessa tiedostetaan yleisesti, analyyseissa Kiina usein kuitenkin unohdetaan. Maailman talouskasvun hidastumisessa vuonna 2011 Kiinalla oli jälleen selkeästi osuutensa. Kiinan talouskasvun hidastuminen on seurausta maan keskuspankin tietoisista toimista hidastaa inflaatiota. Inflaation nyt jo hidastuttua keskuspankki on jälleen alkanut höllentää rahahanoja, minkä pitäisi hiljalleen tukea talouskasvua.

Kiinan talouskasvu hidastui selkeästi viime vuonna. Syy tähän oli viranomaisten tietoinen jarrutus, kun pelättiin talouden ylikuumenemista. Inflaatio oli kiihtynyt yli kuuteen prosenttiin, selvästi yli keskuspankin neljän prosentin tavoitteen. Keskuspankki reagoi tähän kiristämällä rahahanoja ensisijaisesti nostamalla pankkien varantotalletusvaatimuksia sekä nostamalla korkoja.

Kiinan rahapolitiikan seuraaminen on haastavampaa kuin länsimaiden. Tältäkin osin Kiina on erilainen. Koroilla on vähemmän merkitystä. Viime vuonna koron nostamisella osoitettiin halua jarruttaa taloutta, mutta inflaation kiihtyessä reaalikorkojen annettiin pudota negatiivisiksi. Korkojen taso ei siten paljon auttanut jarruttamaan talouden kasvua lähes kymmenen prosentin vuosivauhdista.

Korkojen sijaan Kiinan keskuspankki turvautuu enemmän korkeisiin varantotalletusvaati-muksiin, jotka pakottavat pankit tallettamaan merkittävän osan saamistaan talletuksista keskuspankkiin. Lisäksi keskuspankki asettaa suoraan, joskus hyvin yksityiskohtaisesti, rajoitteita pankkien luotonannolle. Siten ehkä paras mittari keskuspankin toimille on luotonannon kasvu, josta tietoa tosin julkaistaan viiveellä.

Viime vuoden lopulla inflaatio hidastui neljän prosentin tavoitteen tuntumaan. Keskuspankki aloittikin marraskuussa rahapolitiikan keventämisen alentamalla varantotalletusvaatimusta ja laski sitä toissaviikolla toistamiseen. On siten syytä uskoa, että Kiina hiljalleen kääntyy jälleen maailmantalouden kasvua jarruttavasta tekijästä kasvua tukevaksi tekijäksi.


Latest research

Swedish Morning Briefing - Thursday 17 April

• Separatists in Donetsk plan for a local referendum • A summit in Geneva to discuss the crisis in Ukraine

FI Eye-Opener: Easter bunnies to boost bonds today

Yields edged higher yesterday – long positions with potential today. Equities rebound, but more weakness likely ahead. Euro-zone core inflation back to record-lows. Italy taps retail investors for huge amounts again. Big US banks boosting their lending to companies – Euro-zone doing much worse. Philly Fed, jobless claims and LTRO repayment announcement. New French 2-year benchmark and US auctions ahead.

US Rates - Market in doubt

• It has been a bumpy ride for US rates in 2014. A two month rally started the year and recently the Fed has added substantial volatility with their somewhat wobbly way of commenting on future policy. • Further, the last NFP on April 4th was quite a disappointment. • In this note we look into the market perception (through futures and options) of all this, and in particular find indications towards a loss of faith (on rising rates) on behalf of the option market.

Swedish Morning Briefing - Wednesday 16 April

• Putin urges UN to condemn Ukraine’s intervention • Chinese growth at weakest level for six quarters

FI Eye-Opener: No support can survive constant pounding

German 10-year yield finally broke important support – mood remains bullish. A correction higher in yields still looks likely today. US equities recover after early losses. Q1 effect hits Chinese GDP numbers again. Ukraine’s military starting to use force US core inflation bottomed out? Euro-zone inflation and US housing market data ahead – Germany to sell 10-year bonds.

China: The impossible duality

China’s Q1 GDP growth of 7.4% was marginally higher than market consensus. It was caused by a combination of cyclical slowdown and structural shift away from the traditional growth drivers. Beijing is likely to continue the fine-tuning policies and stays away from large-scaled stimulus.

Euro Rates Update

The latest Euro Rates Update is now available

Swedish Morning Briefing - Tuesday 15 April

• Obama warns Putin • Ukraine raises policy rate

Competitiveness of the Nordics

Financial crisis and subsequent Euro crisis have cast doubts on the future prosperity of the Nordic countries. This report takes a closer look at the competitive position of the Nordics over past ten years and aims at answering how worried these countriesshould be.

FI Eye-Opener: Still going lower

Bond yields rebound, but bonds with more performance potential left. Intra-Euro-zone spreads narrow. Equities rise – more downside potential in the near term. US retail sales beat expectations. Eyes on US CPI and Yellen’s speech.

EM FX: Ukraine takes the headlines again

The Ukrainian President's deadline for rebels occupying state buildings in Eastern Ukraine to lay down their weapons have passed. Markets are awaiting news. EM FX is slightly weaker this morning, especially the RUB, the PLN and the TRY, but it seems that markets are becoming more resilient to headline news from Ukraine.

Swedish Morning Briefing - Monday 14 April

• Brighter outlook for global growth • Swedish finance minister worried about inflation

FI Eye-Opener: Please stop strengthening, we are asking nicely

Bonds with more gains on Friday – German 10-year yield to break lower today. Finnish bonds feeling some pressure after a negative outlook by S&P. Correction lower in equities has further to run. ECB fights the stronger currency with words – and talks further about QE. LTRO payments continue coming in – ECB more concerned about the rising euro. US retail sales & inflation, Chinese GDP and corporate earnings ahead. New French 2-year benchmark out this week.

Week Ahead: 12 - 25 April 2014

We cover two weeks in this Easter edition of Week Ahead. Important data prints from China, US inflation, PMI's, German Ifo and more...

Global FX Strategy: QE-nomics

Despite the QE-rumours, we still believe that the EUR has some upside left versus the USD short term. Find out why in this edition of our flagship FX publication, alongside views on NOK, SEK, JPY, AUD, CAD, NZD and Emerging Markets currencies. Enjoy!

European FI Strategy: Mad about QE

Euro zone QE talks all over the place, but there is still room for curve flattening and demand continues to be strong, also for Scandies. Find out what we favor in this month's edition of European FI Strategy.

Swedish Morning Briefing - Friday 11 April

• Finland – S&P affirms AAA but lowers outlook to negative • Nasdaq sees largest decline since November 2011

Finland: King of ratings no more

The credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s surprisingly changed its outlook for the AAA rating of Finland from stable to negative, the first major rating agency to do so. The action puts more pressure on the already shaky government and will deliver a hit to Finnish bonds, very dependent on the highest ratings.

FI Eye-Opener: Bye, bye, Finnish AAA?

Bonds with a big rally yesterday – curves bull-flatten. German 10-year yield gathering momentum to break lower – a correction higher in yields still likely today. Finnish credit rating starting to feel pressure – more pressure for the shaky government. Huge demand for the new Greek benchmark. US consumer confidence and IMF Spring meetings ahead. Italian auctions concluding a busy supply week.

Northern Lights: Goldilocks?

Following this morning’s CPI figures, the Riksbank is widely expected to cut rates. But how can you trade SEK and Swedish Rates in this environment? Find out more on that, alongside updated views from our macroeconomists and strategists across the Nordic region. Northern Light gives you everything you need on Scandinavian Macro, FX and Fixed Income. Enjoy!