DCSIMG

Emerging Markets: Elections Calendar 2012

Here is an update on the heavy elections calendar for Emerging Markets in 2012!

Key headlines:

  • Presidential election of Putin
  • Xi Jinping new top China official
  • Taiwan Strait tensions could increase
  • New presidents in Mexico and Korea?
  • The end of Chavez?
  • One step at a time in Egypt

Summary:

The political cycle is always a key risk factor, especially in Emerging Markets and especially in economic downturns.

The Election calendar for 2012 is heavy and includes China, Russia, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, Venezuela, Hong Kong and Egypt.

Elections Calendar 2012

We do not see any major risks in the big emerging economies – China and Russia – and hence the heavy election calendar is unlikely to weigh on investor perception of Emerging Markets in general.

Elections in Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan and Egypt could give birth to new leadership and may affect markets. The next president in Mexico may facilitate more investment in the oil industry. The next president in Taiwan may favour more independence from China. The next president in Egypt will struggle to unite the people.

Read the full report below!

Happy reading,

Anders

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• Kerry warns Russia to tone down its rhetoric • Chinese PMI looks set to rise

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FI Eye-Opener: China not rebounding like it used to

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Sweden: March Labour Force Survey better than it seems

Unemployment remained unchanged at 8.1% in March (seasonally adjusted). This was above forecasts at 8.0%. However, employment rose more than forecast and was up 0.3% m/m after an uptick of the same magnitude in February. Thus, the higher than expected unemployment reading in March is (once again) explained by unexpected strong growth in the labour supply, +0.3% m/m.

Swedish Morning Briefing - Tuesday 22 April

• Deal clinched during Geneva meeting • Ingves says deflation not likely

FI Eye-Opener: Portuguese bond auctions back

US Treasuries with a beating ahead of the Easter. Some gains ahead for bonds today. US existing home sales out today – Euro-zone flash PMIs later. A flood of auctions on the agenda already today. Portugal to resume its bond auctions. Fresh cash injection to boost French bonds this week.

Euro Rates Update

The latest Euro Rates Update is now available

Swedish Morning Briefing - Thursday 17 April

• Separatists in Donetsk plan for a local referendum • A summit in Geneva to discuss the crisis in Ukraine

FI Eye-Opener: Easter bunnies to boost bonds today

Yields edged higher yesterday – long positions with potential today. Equities rebound, but more weakness likely ahead. Euro-zone core inflation back to record-lows. Italy taps retail investors for huge amounts again. Big US banks boosting their lending to companies – Euro-zone doing much worse. Philly Fed, jobless claims and LTRO repayment announcement. New French 2-year benchmark and US auctions ahead.

US Rates - Market in doubt

• It has been a bumpy ride for US rates in 2014. A two month rally started the year and recently the Fed has added substantial volatility with their somewhat wobbly way of commenting on future policy. • Further, the last NFP on April 4th was quite a disappointment. • In this note we look into the market perception (through futures and options) of all this, and in particular find indications towards a loss of faith (on rising rates) on behalf of the option market.

Swedish Morning Briefing - Wednesday 16 April

• Putin urges UN to condemn Ukraine’s intervention • Chinese growth at weakest level for six quarters

FI Eye-Opener: No support can survive constant pounding

German 10-year yield finally broke important support – mood remains bullish. A correction higher in yields still looks likely today. US equities recover after early losses. Q1 effect hits Chinese GDP numbers again. Ukraine’s military starting to use force US core inflation bottomed out? Euro-zone inflation and US housing market data ahead – Germany to sell 10-year bonds.

China: The impossible duality

China’s Q1 GDP growth of 7.4% was marginally higher than market consensus. It was caused by a combination of cyclical slowdown and structural shift away from the traditional growth drivers. Beijing is likely to continue the fine-tuning policies and stays away from large-scaled stimulus.

Swedish Morning Briefing - Tuesday 15 April

• Obama warns Putin • Ukraine raises policy rate