DCSIMG

Research in English

Recession Recovery

Euro-area growth forecast update – slow for longer

Published date: 22 May 2013
We revise down our GDP forecasts from -0.4% to -0.8% for 2013 and from 1.4% to 1% for next year. We don’t surrender to those forecasting no growth at all also for next year. We maintain our view that the balance of risk is for ECB to keep rates unchanged.
Bernanke happy II

Bernanke: no cuts to QE yet

Published date: 22 May 2013
Fed chairman Bernanke's highly expected testimony suggested that the Fed still has little appetite for a slowing of the central bank’s bond purchases. Nevertheless, we still believe tapering could start by the September FOMC meeting.
CHF: Floored but no one’s counting

CHF: Floored but no one’s counting

Published date: 23 May 2013
We forecast EURCHF at 1.25 by year-end and at mid-2014, and 1.30 at end-2014 Recent CHF weakness reflects the general risk-on environment while also speculations about additional easing measures being imposed by the SNB It remains to be seen if equity markets stabilizes over…
Need Work

Nitty Gritty on Sweden: The upward trend in the labour supply remains intact

Published date: 21 May 2013
Attached are some charts on the April Labour Force Survey. A key question is how to look at the very strong upturn in the labour supply. The employment rate is stable, but absence has remained high in recent months.

May

Is Bank of Japan already failing?

Published date: 23 May 2013 | Analyst: Jan von Gerich

After being characterized by a lack of potential and passion for years, the Japanese markets have definitely been reinvigorated by the actions taken by the new government and the central bank. However, is the more than doubling in government bond yields undermining the stimulus of the Bank of Japan?

Inflation picked up, budget deficit can widen

Published date: 23 May 2013 | Analyst: Dmitry Savchenko

Inflation again showed noteworthy pick up last week, CPI increased by 0.2%, comparing with 0.1% week earlier. Thus inflation pressure remains high. Poor 2012 harvest still effects the market as food component is continuing to increase with higher pace. High …

China: Growth outlook remains subdued

Published date: 23 May 2013 | Analyst: Annika Lindblad

The HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI for China was a disappointment. Industrial production looks set to remain subdued over the coming months, and it is hard to expect a significant pick-up in growth in Q2 from the disappointing Q1.

Central Bank Watch: New Governors at the Riksbank

Published date: 22 May 2013 | Analyst: Andreas Jonsson

Today Cecilia Skingsley (b. 1968) and Martin Flodén (b. 1970) were appointed as new governors at the Riksbank. Premature to do the bird-classification. We regard both candidates as skilled with judicious minds and integrity. Both will be voting already in …

Hawkish comments and demand for RUB offset oil market dynamics

Published date: 22 May 2013 | Analyst: Dmitry Savchenko

RUB retreated yesterday as oil market turned around and declined slightly. Brent futures dropped below $104 /bbl., as data showed a surprise jump in U.S. gasoline stockpiles. However Russian currency has strong support these days given robust RUB purchases ahead …

Shipping Essentials Weekly

Published date: 21 May 2013

Macro and Events in Brief The Norwegian GDP figures came in more or less as Norges Bank expected and we therefore see no reason to change our view on Norges Bank. In the Eurozone GDP shrank by 0,2 % in …

New financial forecasts

Published date: 21 May 2013 | Analysts: Aurelija Augulyte, Henrik Unell, Rickard Hellman, Anders Svendsen, Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Fredrik Paulsson

With Fed appearing somewhat more inclined towards QE-tapering than previously signaled, we bring down our 3 month EURUSD forecast to 1.32. We also adjust our Brent Q2 forecast down to USD 105/bbl.

Sweden: Unemployment stays above the Riksbank’s forecast

Published date: 21 May 2013 | Analyst: Torbjörn Isaksson

It is a close call whether the Riksbank will cut rates or not in July. That is the bottom line of today’s figures from the Labour Force Survey.